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#11
12-07-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
Not an instacall. I'm treating this as a (slightly bigger) SNG with 17 players left. Calling coinflip has to be -EV here (not sure if MTTs can be ICM'd, but if they can, I'm somewhat certain this is -EV).
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#12
12-07-2005, 04:11 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
[ QUOTE ]
Instacall. I expect to see TT-JJ most of the time. AK is about a coinflip and chips won are worth much more than chips lost ($EV). [/ QUOTE ] My head hurts.
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#13
12-07-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
If villain showed me jacks I would call.
Because the expected value of a 160K stack with 16 players left is alot more than twice the expected value of a stack with 80K... to me.
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#14
12-07-2005, 04:20 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
and whats the expected value of ZERO?!
btw, i fold this.
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#15
12-07-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
Agree with chief. First of all, my hand range for villain is 88 - QQ. If he's that tight, he's not playing anything outside of that range that way. It's just absurd to think so - AQ with a guy second in chips to his left? No sir. With the BB at 6,000, you have some wiggle room. You have room to buy blinds and make plays on the flop. Even if villain is switching up, he may still be a 54/46 favorite here. If you knew another player was going all-in to your left, then maybe... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. But, not now.
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#16
12-07-2005, 04:37 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
AK has more fold equity than value imo, I personally wouldnt risk going all in on an unmade hand without being the raiser.
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#17
12-07-2005, 05:03 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
You can treat it how you like, but this is nothing like a Sit N go.
It's a 17 player tournament that pays 10 spots (relative to where everyone is at) The payout is increasingly top heavy. 1st 34.2% 2nd 20.5% 3rd 12.3% 4th 9.6% 5th 7.5% 6th 5.5% 7th 4.1% 8th 2.7% 9th 2.1% 10th 1.4% (taken from party website and adjusted as % of total distributed to top 10 places in a field of 400+) The average stack is 10XBB. 160K is 27XBB, (20XBB at 4k/8k) Just eyeballing it an 80K stack is worth about 8th-9th place (on avg). And 160K stack is worth 5th-6th. There are unlikely to be any very soft players at this point, the most important thing is chips. You are substantially overvaluing your ability to outplay the other players if you are willing to pass on your best hands with 13XBB left. Then again maybe you can fold and pick up aces next hand.
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#18
12-07-2005, 05:09 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
i don't know where you come up with:
1) your number for average stack left in the tournament, as you shouldn't be able to have one i think 2) any of a number of other things which are pulled entirely out of the air.
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#20
12-07-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
1) avg stack taken from eyeballing sum of chips at table divided by # players at table (assumption other table about the same) (margin for error : small)
2) 80/6 = ~13 3) look it up yourself. 73% paid to top 10 spots. 1st spot gets 34% of this (X 73%)= 25% of total prize pool. I intentionally overlooked the small amout for 11th-17th which should be deducted from all the prizes but its not significant. On a personal note, your probably a dick. 3)
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