cowboys facing a big overbet

sammy_g · #1 07-07-2005, 10:33 AM

party 1/2 6 max. i have KK in the cutoff. two folds, and i make it $6. button folds, and SB moves in for over $300. BB folds. i have $283 left.

i've never folded KK preflop. sadly, i don't have much of a read on SB except that he is kinda weird/bad (as you can probably tell from this hand).

fold or call?

djoyce003 · #2 07-07-2005, 10:37 AM

i hate folding here but I probably do...you have 6 bucks invested and you'd have to risk 300....if he's as bad as you say he is, this could be AA. Then again it could be 88.....I'd still fold unless i'd seen him pull this stunt a few times, then i'd instacall.

sammy_g · #3 07-07-2005, 02:01 PM

thanks, djoyce.

does anyone else call here, or am i a fish? cause i called...

djoyce003 · #4 07-07-2005, 02:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
thanks, djoyce.

does anyone else call here, or am i a fish? cause i called...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes...but I still think the general concensus will be no as it's a mammoth overbet and you don't have the nuts. If he had open pushed a few times, then i'd call, but if this is the first time he tried it, then I probably fold. Hope it worked out for you.

Go_Blue88 · #5 07-07-2005, 02:13 PM

i'd call.

TheWorstPlayer · #6 07-07-2005, 02:21 PM

Very very easy call. Christ.

TheWorstPlayer · #7 07-07-2005, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I still think the general concensus will be no as it's a mammoth overbet and you don't have the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, because no one on this board cares about EV, we only like to call bets with the nuts.

xorbie · #8 07-07-2005, 02:31 PM

Let's say he wins 20% of the time here, and let's say you (or the blinds) only call with AA when he moves in. He is risking $280 to win $9 and he wins $280 20% of the time. Let's say the blinds never call (so really his EV is even lower), so he ends the hand with:

(1-x) * (302) + x*.2*580 = 300 - 302x + 116x = 302 - 186x. And this is assuming he starts the hand with 290, so in order to break even he needs you to fold 94% of the time. This means that, surprisingly enough, his push is actually not so bad, especially if he has a hand like 67[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which is actually about 30% to win against AA, in which case he maybe needs you to fold only 91% of the time.

Just an interesting aside.

djoyce003 · #9 07-07-2005, 02:45 PM

i'm curious about results now.

LBJ · #10 07-07-2005, 02:53 PM

Alright, let's say 65% of the time you're facing AA. 10% of the time you're facing AK. The other 25% you're facing an underpair (QQ-1010). Those are by far reasonable estimates.

65% * .18 = 12
10% * .70 = 7
25% * .82 = 21

Looks like youll win about 40% of the time here. If these estimates on the hands are reasonable it looks like you should fold. After all that, I'd probably still end up calling. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

EDIT: I probably should have included some % of random hands. I'd say theres a 10% chance he's bluffing with a completely random hand. This is Party....so yet another reason I'd end up calling.