Flopped trips in 6 max. Villain shows tremendous strength on turn.

[rikz]

Villain has been running well. I have not seen him bluff, but I have already folded once to an all-in river bet from this villain while I had TPWK, so I don't know if he was bluffing that time.

Since I sat down, he doubled up with a set versus an overpair and top two pair versus TPWK.

Comments on all streets welcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

BB ($4.5)
UTG ($26.7)
MP ($44.75)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($27.35)</font>
<font color="#C00000">SB Villain ($64.37)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB Villain posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">SB Villain raises to $0.9</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, Villain calls $3.

Turn: ($8.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises to $16</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero... ?</font>

[swolfe]

he has queens or AQ. probably queens.

open trips like this are not a very strong hand. it's too obvious. if you get action, it's either from a very weak player or someone that can beat TTTK.

[edge]

Hero goes all-in. Folding here would be ridiculous.

[kasey2004]

ya all in is your only choice and hope for no QQ

[taran]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero goes all-in. Folding here would be ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

[EchoOfThunder]

If he had queens dont you think he would play the flop a little faster after raising preflop?

On 6 max, he could have 88, especially if hes aggressive cause of the pf raise. I would say it's more likely he has AQ here though. All in is your only play.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
ya all in is your only choice and hope for no QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate it when people give this kind of advice. poker is not about "hoping", it's about planning and reasoning out likely holdings for your opponents.

from the description, villain seems like a reasonably solid player. he's only gone to showdown with set or two pair.

what do we know?
<ul type="square">[*] villain raised from the SB
<font color="blue">from a solid player this usually means a premium hand: AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ</font> [*] villain showed strength on the turn when the queen showed
<font color="blue">implies: QQ/AQ, remotely possible AA/KK</font> [*] villain called a bet on the flop with an open pair
<font color="blue">implies: at least a PP over 8, remotely possible club draw</font> [/list]
the only two hands that make sense are AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or QQ. QQ is more likely. i think AA/KK could be a possibility too, but not as likely.

[xcrack999]

I think reraising all-in would make it very obvious that you have a three, allowing villain to make the correct decision of folding if he has AQ and calling if he has QQ. However, just calling his raise would put you in a difficult position on the river because you'll be so pot-commited.

But if you're thinking about putting your whole stack in the middle with this hand, I think just calling his raise on the turn and then calling his river bet is the better line. (Assuming that he will bet his AQ on the river if you just call the turn. If checks on river, then you can make a tiny value bet that he's forced to call) With this line, you lose the same amount if he has QQ, and you win more if he has AQ.

[Malachii]

There's an excellent chance he's bluffing. I bluff with trips on the board when I'm in a blind all the time, and it's I play I've seen others do also. Even if he's not bluffing, he could be overplaying AQ or something.

You're getting 4-1 on your call here, so there is absolutely no way you can fold. You're definitely good here 20% of the time. After you call, you've got 7$ left, so there's no way you can fold there either. I would just call, and then call on the river no matter what/push if he checks it to me. If he has a bigger fullhouse then hey, it sucks, but this is why you have a bankroll.

[Malachii]

Hey swolfe....

I don't think Hero can possibly fold here getting 4-1 on his call and with his short stack. I don't think there's anyway Villain won't be bluffing, overplaying a marginal hand, or having a hand like KK or AA here less than 20% of the time, do you?

If Hero has 100 behind here than this would be different.