I Know 2+2 Wants To Kill Me For This......

[Guruman]

this thread makes makes me smile. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
But it doesn't change the fact that you are not going to see that 21% share of the pots because you use your fold button and they don't. So unless some other factor is operating to make you PFR profitable, your 21% is going to shrink to 18% or whatever and your PFR will be a money-losing turkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I don't think I ever quite thought of that.

I think, though, that against most opponents raising increases folding equity and thus our opponents will be the ones not seeing a showdown quite as often. This is especially true when we have position.

Against calling stations out of position though, I certainly see your point.

[Dave G.]

Very interesting concepts, I'm glad I found this thread.

Here is my take on it. Let me know if I'm not understanding something here please...

If you are in an EV neutral situation, you, as a good postflop player, are best served by not raising and bloating the pot. This allows your postflop edge to work more for you when your situation changes from an EV neutral situation to a +EV situation. The other players will be making bigger mistakes because the size of the pot does not cover their losses, and you will therefore be making bigger gains. Also, if your situation becomes a -EV situation, you can dump your hand, preventing you from making those mistakes too.

This seems analogous to the concept of protecting your hand, or of waiting until the turn to protect your hand a la SSH.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]

The problem is you are a good player and they are calling stations. I'm really happy for you getting to play a pot against these guys. No doubt you will make lots of money postflop. But it doesn't change the fact that you are not going to see that 21% share of the pots because you use your fold button and they don't. So unless some other factor is operating to make you PFR profitable, your 21% is going to shrink to 18% or whatever and your PFR will be a money-losing turkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew there was a sound reason I'm so wimpy preflop.

Look, obviously this concept can be taken too far. At some point our equity has to be high enough to compensate for the "problem" that we fold more than our opponents. Now all we have to do is figure out one catch-all formula for knowing where to draw the line.

Go to work math geeks. And make sure the formula takes into account that not all calling stations chase to an equal degree.

Actually, the real question is did you make subsequent good use of the info that CO is agro enough to 3-bet small pairs?