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  #11  
Old 12-21-2005, 05:46 PM
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Default Re: How good is an underboat in this game?

The preflop call was iffy, but very low -EV. Odds will make a set with a pair in the hole on the flop is 12.43% or 1 in 7.04. When you called there were only 3.5 SB's in the pot, not enough to call, but you lucked out and got 2.5 more bets after your call. That means you were just over one bet shy of what you needed. So still -EV, but not that much. Nevertheless those fractions add up over time, so watch this leak. In O8, 99 can only be played for set value. Take advantage of position, here you don't have it so I would recommend a fold.

Your flop raise was good. You have to test your hand, and you will make a fullhouse 35% of the time if you take it to the river, so you can take on the flush draws. There were no re-reaises, so like below, I feel you have the best hand. KKxx has to raise to fend off the flush draw and build the pot for his own good. The odds you do not have the best hand here are slim slim slim. (If you don't the other person is not paying attention, or even better, is an idiot.)

Turn - you have to bet here. The most likely draw and only smart draw is a flush. It didn't hit, but someone could have made a str8 or str8 draw. Make them pay if there are drawing, and if they have it, they will probably announce it with a raise. Not raising cost you information. (Edit - what I mean is you raise, a made str8 has incentive to re-raise b/c maybe he may be able to chase out the flush draws facing 2 BB's. (Doubt it, though, this table seems quite loose, which by the way is why your call was probably only slightly -EV in spite of only having 3.5 bets in the pot.) You have 10 outs, so of course you are going to call the raise, but if the board doesn't pair you will have a good idea about the strength of your hand.)

River - underfulls are scary in O8, but they stand up very regularly. Without crazy betting, see the showdown, especially when the pot's big and no one else has represented trips on the flop. Occasionally, someone makes a fullhouse here b/c they had two pair on the 1st Jack. So what, with the pot so big, not calling is always a bigger mistake than folding. With 23 BB in the pot, and one bet to call, you can lose with your underfull 22 times and still break even. You will win with an underfull way more often than that. Folding here would be HUGE a mistake.

So other than an iffy -EV pre-flop call this hand was well played, IMHO.

2nd Edit - for some reason I misread the turn betting, there was some raising after all, there is your str8, like some one said below.
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  #12  
Old 12-21-2005, 06:33 PM
elitegimp elitegimp is offline
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Default Re: How good is an underboat in this game?

[ QUOTE ]
River......hero.......raises.

You're last to act, MP3 has Q-10 and SB probably has the same. SB raises this with a full on the river, you're good here often enough to raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt very confident that I hit my redraw against both SB and MP3... but what does UTG have?
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  #13  
Old 12-21-2005, 09:58 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: How good is an underboat in this game?

[ QUOTE ]
.... SB raises this with a full on the river ....

[/ QUOTE ]

Tex - Not necessarily. SB may want to pull in a call from UTG and Hero. Or SB, holding something like KQJT might be worried about an opponent holding kings full.

(It's not out of the question for MP3 to have kings full, although actually, I think MP3 is the most likely candidate for KQJT).

Or SB, holding QJT9, might be worried about an opponent holding either kings full or jacks full of kings.

Finally there's a possibility MP3 has quad jacks, perhaps as QJJT. By itself, quad jacks is a distant threat, but taken with all the other possibilities for Hero's demise, I think prudence is in order.

At any rate let's suppose Hero is not prudent, does raise, gets re-raised by MP3, and both SB and UTG fold to the double bet. Now what?

There always are six possible full houses when the board is paired. In addition, when you do not have a card the same rank as the board pair, there is the possibility of an opponent holding quads. Here Hero has the fifth-nut full house, which from hero's perspective is actually the sixth nut high hand. There are FIVE higher possible hands for Hero's opponents here, and they all involve cards most opponents would tend to play.

Raise on the river??? Yikes!

Buzz
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  #14  
Old 12-21-2005, 11:35 PM
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Default Re: How good is an underboat in this game?

[ QUOTE ]

Raise on the river??? Yikes!

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree w/ Buzz. As played, a raise wouldn't be wise.

Buzz, I'm wondering about something that hasn't been mentioned yet. Do you think OP's initial check on the river is the right play? Given that there is just one player left to act behind, I'd definitely bet out if I were hero. If I get raised by the button, probably have to call... But if it checks through and hero misses picking up a bet or two from the 9-K str's, that's worse, as long as the check around happens more frequently than the button raise, which I believe it does.
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  #15  
Old 12-22-2005, 03:00 AM
elitegimp elitegimp is offline
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Default Results, a few more comments / questions

Just realized that I forgot the results... I'm not real sure that any of you care that much, but just in case:

MP3 showed T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the straight. Was his flop call decent with the second nut low draw to go with it? He was getting 5:1, I don't know why he made that call.
SB showed Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the straight (I can understand his flop bet, with the flush draw and a gazillion-out straight draw after the flop! What is it, 17 outs to the straight if we disregard the other hands involved?)
UTG showed A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the runner-runner trips. I guess he stayed on the turn chasing his J-high flush (that would have been beaten by SB's Q-high had a club actually fallen)

and MHIG.

I think that if UTG had found a fold on the river, I would have check-raised it... I knew MP3 and SB both had QTxy and I hadn't considered KKQT, QJJT, KQJT, or QJT9 as a possible holding... but I'm just happy to have squeaked out with this pot.

After checking out the O/8 site linked above, I promptly dropped 10 of my *cough cough* hard earned BBs at a somewhat tighter but more aggressive table. I've determined that I can profit off of loose passive players who don't know how to read their hands, but everyone else is at an advantage playing against me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks for all the advice!

Oh, and sorry to violate the posting rules regarding the title of this thread... I didn't actually read the "READ THIS BEFORE POSTING" thread until this morning. I suck.
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  #16  
Old 12-22-2005, 06:00 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: Results, a few more comments / questions

[ QUOTE ]
Just realized that I forgot the results... I'm not real sure that any of you care that much, but just in case:

[/ QUOTE ]

Gimp - Thanks. I don't care about the results, but I have to admit I was curious about what your various opponents were holding.

[ QUOTE ]
Was his flop call decent with the second nut low draw to go with it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's just say it was a creative call. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

At a tougher table, to justify their betting, your opponents would tend to have better fits with the flop and board than here. You have to love idiot chasers like UTG, but they're hard to read. Trouble with learning against these guys is you may pick up bad habits that will get you smashed at a tougher table.

[ QUOTE ]
and MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

*WD "MHIG" SF?

Buzz
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.*(What does "MHIG" stand for?)
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  #17  
Old 12-22-2005, 06:17 AM
kitaristi0 kitaristi0 is offline
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Default Re: Results, a few more comments / questions

My hand is good = MHIG.
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  #18  
Old 12-22-2005, 06:35 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: How good is an underboat in this game?

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think OP's initial check on the river is the right play? Given that there is just one player left to act behind, I'd definitely bet out if I were hero. If I get raised by the button, probably have to call... But if it checks through and hero misses picking up a bet or two from the 9-K str's, that's worse

[/ QUOTE ]

Fat Ballz - Good point.

Gee. I don't know. Against this collection of buffoons, it's hard to say.

Here are some reasons not to be overly rambunctious with the sixth nut high hand in a more typical game:
There is a distinct danger of being up against a better full house or quads. When the first two players check, maybe the one yet to act is the one who has it.
A savvy player in early position might check expecting to get in a check-raise. Hero thwarts this plan by check/calling.
A savvy player in early position might check the fourth nut full house, half expecting a better full house behind him, and half expecting to simply pick off a bet by an aggressive late position opponent with a worse hand. Hero avoids getting picked off by this player with a non-nut, but better hand than Hero's.

Hero does not necessarily miss a bet by checking. Indeed, Hero may gain a bet by checking. (Against a better, but very aggressive MP3, Hero probably does better by letting MP3 bet the hand for him).

Check/call on the river is a safer way to play Hero's hand than betting it, probably winning about as much while risking less.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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  #19  
Old 12-23-2005, 07:24 PM
benwood benwood is offline
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Default Re: How good is an underboat in this game?

I would be careful on this river,myself.It's not too hard to envision a guy with a KJ or a K9 in his hand.
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