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#11
12-08-2005, 08:05 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Looks like a fold to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I think he's over-excited about a Q 1/13 here. Didn't sound like read was too thorough. [/ QUOTE ] only AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] fits, and he didn't raise preflop. plus we just yelled LOUDLY on the turn that we have a flush, and his would be the 3rd nuts. this can't be a +EV call (i make it, though). 
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#12
12-08-2005, 08:06 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Looks like a fold to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I think he's over-excited about a Q 1/13 here. Didn't sound like read was too thorough. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but what's his other card then?
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#13
12-08-2005, 08:11 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Looks like a fold to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I think he's over-excited about a Q 1/13 here. Didn't sound like read was too thorough. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but what's his other card then? [/ QUOTE ] A or J of non-diamonds? I could be wrong, but I have a really hard time folding here.
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#14
12-08-2005, 08:38 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
[ QUOTE ]
calling is probably -EV. AQ is a preflop raise for even many "conservative" players, so most likely he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. it is very doubtful he raises the river with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] anyway, and there's no way he's raising the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and he can't have the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. yeah i'm gonna say this is a -EV call but i pay the man. [/ QUOTE ] That's about exactly what went through my head after he raised the river. I was about 98% sure he had the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I really wanted to fold. Then as I saw the clock ticking ever closer to 0 I told myself, "I'm just not good enough to make this laydown right now, even though I KNOW he has me beat". I called, he showed A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I was once again reminded why I still choose to play Party .5/1.
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#15
12-08-2005, 08:45 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
wait how did this remind you of why you choose to play at party?
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#17
12-08-2005, 09:02 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
[ QUOTE ]
wait how did this remind you of why you choose to play at party? [/ QUOTE ] That was just my way of saying that I'm not confident enough to play againt better players and for higher stakes on a regular basis. Wasn't meant to be taken literally.
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#18
12-08-2005, 09:18 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
k, it was either that or saying the guy was donking around (but he played well).
but yeah i feel the same way sometimes.
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#19
12-08-2005, 09:55 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
Can I turn this around a bit? Okay, I'm detecting a leak of my own here. If I were BB I'd almost certainly raise with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river and call a 3-bet. If it were UTG or something I'd be much more cautious, but SB could have any two suited--am I wrong in thinking he won't have an A or K half the time? (statistically speaking he'd have a lower flush about 55% of the time if he had two random diamonds and I had one)
Edit: Getting out of my chair somehow answered my question for me--we're losing 2 bets if I'm wrong and gaining one if I'm right. Whoops--I need to do more examination of game theory like that.)
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#20
12-08-2005, 10:05 PM
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Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
The thing is the only hand he can have with a Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in it is AQ and he should raise that preflop. Just the chance that he would raise it preflop makes an already unlikely holding even less likely. The flop raise indicates Ace, the river raise indicates it was a diamond.
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