NL 50, Set of 9s, Turn 3-flush

[spider]

Party Poker NL $50 (6 max, 6 handed) Blinds .25/.50

CO is on the LAG side 47/16, but doesn't seem reckless except maybe with a couple large raises pre-flop (like 10x BB). Pretty reasonable post flop as far as I can tell, but I'm pretty new to NL and don't read folks very well at this point.

We both have about $80.

Comments on all streets appreciated. FWIW, my plan on the flop was to make a pot-sized check-raise on the turn as long as it wasn't a diamond. I assume my all in was a bit much, but I'm curious how big a re-raise I should make there. At the time, I just figured it was better to err on the side of over-betting rather than underbetting.

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO raises 2.25, 1 fold, Hero calls, BB folds. MP folds.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Pot ~ 5.50
Hero checks, CO bets 5.25, Hero calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Pot ~ 15.75
Hero checks, CO bets 15.20, Hero calls 79.41 (All-In)

[Petteri]

Pre-flop and flop action suggests flush is not too likely. Of course villian could have made semi-bluff on flop with flush draw and overcards. But high pocket pair or i.e. AQ is more likely.

It seems you are committed to the pot and going to go all-in. I would probably raise 45 $ on turn but overbetting is not bad either. Small raise is bad play cause it makes your river decision very hard if fourth diamond hits.

I really dont like this turn push at all. The flush hits and you push to his raise? This only will push him off a hand that you beat. I think its far more profitable to call here, then raise the river or call the river based on the size of his bet.

If villain checks the river then you can bet for value. Raising the turn like this is the worst move I think.

[gulebjorn]

Make it 15 on the flop.

The turn push is absolutely horrible. This is one of the most -EV moves you can make.

If he doesn't have the flush, he's not calling. So you will have won what's in the pot at that point. But if he doesn't have the flush, you would have won that money with your 9's anyway. In addition, you exclude the possibility of extracting more money from him on later streets.

If he does have the flush: he's calling no matter what. You have 10 outs to improve on the river, but that's only a 4:1 shot. So you're just throwing money out the window.

Just call this turn. If you boat up on the river, push your money in. If you don't, just call whatever he bets.

JMO

[spider]

Thanks for the comments everyone. Results: he took a long time, asked me if I had a flush, then folded.

My thinking was similar to Petteri's. I figure he has overs and may or may not have the flush draw. He could have a flush, but given the strong likelihood of an overpair, I'm not really worried about it on the turn.

Just calling on the turn seems like a bit of a mistake to me (though maybe I should have just bet out, I dunno). In particular, I don't get this reasoning:

[ QUOTE ]
If he doesn't have the flush, he's not calling. So you will have won what's in the pot at that point. But if he doesn't have the flush, you would have won that money with your 9's anyway. I

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not real experienced in this particular game, but I think sometimes I do get a call from red KK, for example.

But I don't know that I mind all that much when red KK folds either -- there is a bit of money in the pot already and when he doesn't have a flush, he does have a flush draw fairly often (approx half the time?).

If he has a flush, I can live with that. And I'm 3.6 to 1 to boat up by the way, not 4 to 1.

[gulebjorn]

He'd have to be pretty damn stupid to call 65$ for a 45$ pot on that board, with less than your trip 9's.

As to the part you quoted: it means that if you make him fold a hand that is worse than trip 9's, you will have gained nothing, because you would win the money that is in the pot anyway, because you have the better hand. There is no use in making someone fold if you are a big favorite to win the hand. The only hands that are calling that bet, are hands that have you beat.

Unless he's stupid, in which case you should go ahead and take his money.

[gulebjorn]

[ QUOTE ]
But I don't know that I mind all that much when red KK folds either -- there is a bit of money in the pot already and when he doesn't have a flush, he does have a flush draw fairly often (approx half the time?).

[/ QUOTE ]

No. It is less. And of those times, he will hit his draw less than 20% of rivers. And even if he holds a diamond, you can only count the times that it is a high one to be able to take some pressure on the river. And of those times, you will boat up a few times. Of course it is hard to put a number on this. But you shouldn't be scared of a flush draw, be scared of a made flush.

It's the same when you are holding a made flush on a paired board. No, you're not up against a full house all the time, but what's the use in making a bet that will only be called by a full house?

[EchoOfThunder]

i lead the flop, then reraise his raise.

[Rockatansky]

[ QUOTE ]
Make it 15 on the flop.

The turn push is absolutely horrible. This is one of the most -EV moves you can make.

If he doesn't have the flush, he's not calling. So you will have won what's in the pot at that point. But if he doesn't have the flush, you would have won that money with your 9's anyway. In addition, you exclude the possibility of extracting more money from him on later streets.

If he does have the flush: he's calling no matter what. You have 10 outs to improve on the river, but that's only a 4:1 shot. So you're just throwing money out the window.

Just call this turn. If you boat up on the river, push your money in. If you don't, just call whatever he bets.

JMO

[/ QUOTE ]

Quoted for truth.

[spider]

[ QUOTE ]
As to the part you quoted: it means that if you make him fold a hand that is worse than trip 9's, you will have gained nothing, because you would win the money that is in the pot anyway, because you have the better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm getting caught up in semantics but I think this is wrong in any sort of strictly mathematical sense. When he has a flush draw here, he has about 20% equity and has to prefer that I call rather than raise him out of his 20% stake.

Doesn't mean my push was the best move, of course, but I don't see how it could be "gaining nothing" when it shuts my opponent out of his 20% stake of the pot.

Maybe I should phrase it like this? Given my checks on the flop and turn, should I have picked a raise on the turn to give him something like 3 to 1?