KK facing overbet on the turn

[redrooski24]

Figured I would make this my first hand post in high stakes. I thought this was hand was one of the more interesting ones from my session.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

UTG+2 ($576.7)
MP1 ($407.3)
MP2 ($135.4)
MP3 ($92.05)
CO ($363)
Button ($417.7)
SB ($612.25)
BB ($425)
Hero ($403)
UTG+1 ($401.8)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, UTG+1 calls $16, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $14, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($52) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $100</font>, Hero calls $60.

Turn: ($252) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $300</font>, Hero ???

The reason for my somewhat small flop bet is I had been making lots of continuation bets around this size recently with some whiffed overcards and had to lay some down. I thought about 3 betting the flop, but is this an easy muck on the turn? I put a set in the possible holdings of villain after the flop C/R but after the big bet again on the turn it seemed more and more like he had a vulernable hand(2 pair at most) and the more I thought about it the more I thought he had some kind of big draw like A9c or TJc etc. What are your thoughts on this?

[youwereborn]

I would do something like this:

Set = 35% cance of holdng * 10 % chance of winning = .035
+
Flush Draw = 20% * 75% = .15
+
AA = 15% * 10% = .015
+
QQ, JJ, TT, = 15% * 90% = .135
+
Bluff = 15% * 95% = .1425
____________________________
47.75% chance of winning hand....
Now, This is nessicarily a rough estimate, and the estimate you get atthe table would be even rougher, but this is the line along which I would be thinking.
So now we just compare this to the pot odds and see that your opponent has bet more than the pot. I dont think you have the odds to call here.

[Manimal]

You're forgetting about the amount of money in the pot already.

The proper immediate odds to consider are 552:300, or 11:6 to simplify. So you're getting the right odds to call if your estimate is accurate (11:6 on a ~11:9 shot).

[flawless_victory]

here are my estimates based on a party unkown...
88/99- 98%
otherhands- 2%
chances of winning- FOLD.

[Bosox]

[ QUOTE ]
chances of winning- FOLD.

[/ QUOTE ]

[youwereborn]

Yeah, sorry I cant beleive I missed that. looking at my numbers though I think its maby up to 50% for the set... this is really a tough one but I would fold cuz im a poor wuss

[Slappz]

Maybe hes overbetting the turn because he doesnt want you to hit your draw, not the other way around. Id muck.

[redrooski24]

I'm suprised everyone is so quick to give credit to a set and if that is the case, why not just fold to the flop C/R? Maybe I just can't fold overpairs very often, but why would a made hand want to drive out what is most likely an overpair from an UTG raise? Would a better strategy be to 3 bet the flop and fold to a push? I was actually thinking about folding to a 2/3-full pot bet on the turn but then the overbet somewhat threw me off and put me in the tank for all my time. Results to come after a little more discussion if the hand merits any more.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm suprised everyone is so quick to give credit to a set and if that is the case, why not just fold to the flop C/R? Maybe I just can't fold overpairs very often, but why would a made hand want to drive out what is most likely an overpair from an UTG raise? Would a better strategy be to 3 bet the flop and fold to a push? I was actually thinking about folding to a 2/3-full pot bet on the turn but then the overbet somewhat threw me off and put me in the tank for all my time. Results to come after a little more discussion if the hand merits any more.

[/ QUOTE ]that overbet is def suspicious and from alot of players it screams big draw/bluff... but you cant analyze the turn without giving some respect to the flop action... what 2/4 party guy is baaaby checkraising the flop OOP with a draw... seems unlikely. that tiny checkraise of UTG raiser is screaming nuts.