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  #1  
Old 12-20-2005, 10:34 AM
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Default 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

Can someone who's good with statistical analysis look at this? In my observed hands database, I came across this player who's getting crushed after 11500 hands....yet his W$SD is an amazing 58.29!!

I realize his WtSD is a little low, but how is this possible??

If you need more of his statistics, let me know.

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  #2  
Old 12-20-2005, 10:37 AM
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

He this could be me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
I dunno, but I guess he's losing alot of big pots.
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  #3  
Old 12-20-2005, 11:16 AM
Entity Entity is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.
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  #4  
Old 12-20-2005, 11:34 AM
intensify1 intensify1 is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

I also believe his PFR is a tad low along with blind steal.
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  #5  
Old 12-20-2005, 11:57 AM
jba jba is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

variance / selection bias
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  #6  
Old 12-20-2005, 12:04 PM
marching_on_together marching_on_together is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

I would be surprised if this guy is a long term loser as his stats don't appear to be too far off. I imagine he's not a happy bunny at present though.
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  #7  
Old 12-20-2005, 12:08 PM
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

[ QUOTE ]
He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks Rob,

After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose.
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  #8  
Old 12-20-2005, 12:16 PM
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks Rob,

After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are almost precisely my stats, though my BB/100 is on the plus side. I fold too often. I'm working on seeing more showdowns, but I have a hard time seeing the showdown when I get check/raised on the turn when I've got AJ that missed. I'm trying to play cheap (1/2, 2/4) HU sessions to get more familiarity with playing missed/weak hands.

I'm guessing this player is normally a .5BB/100 type winner an he's having a bad run. Last night, first 3 hands I flopped trips, trips, nut straight, only to lose each time to a runner/runner. Those 3 hands put me nearly 20BB hole right off the bat. When you're a .5BB/100 winner, a sequence like that can put you in the hole for a loooonnnnggggg time.

Variance sucks.
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  #9  
Old 12-20-2005, 12:19 PM
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

Is your W$SD normally in the very high 50s when running bad and in the mid 60s when running good?
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  #10  
Old 12-20-2005, 12:33 PM
rory rory is offline
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

If you are having a hard time seeing the showdown when you get check-raised on the turn with your AJ that missed, then stop betting the turn with your AJ that missed if you might get check-raised.
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