Sometimes Monsters Are REAL

Danenania · #1 10-24-2005, 06:30 PM

How much action are you giving in each of these? Please back up your answers.

HAND 1

Villain is 13/8/2 over 250 hands.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 raises, CO calls, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero...

HAND 2

Villain is 21/1/0.5 over 150 hands.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP2 raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero...

sthief09 · #2 10-24-2005, 06:37 PM

in hand 1 it's 2-1 that you're looking at AJ vs 88 or JJ, and it's less likely that he'd 3-bet AJ preflop, and he has I think 8 outs if behind, and you have only 1, so it's a call. hand 2 you're looking at KK, QQ, KQ. since it's the 4th bet on the turn and this guy won't be check-raising you, I'd go ahead and cap it since you're going to see KQ slightly more often than KK/QQ

Danenania · #3 10-24-2005, 06:41 PM

Forgot to include another fairly important stat. MP3 in Hand 1 is 20/9 PF.

Justin A · #4 10-24-2005, 06:42 PM

Hand 1 you're looking at JJ and 88 as the only reasonable hands that beats you, and I'd say you're up against AJ or a badly played overpair much more often. I'm capping the turn and calling one raise on the river.

Hand 2 I like calling the 3bet and raising the river. I like this better than either capping and calling the river or capping and raising the river.

blackize · #5 10-24-2005, 06:45 PM

Keep in mind I dont play 20/40. Also neither hand is shorthanded...

In hand 1 I call the raise and bet call the river(assuming it isn't an A or K)

Given the action preflop J8/J6 isn't a possibility, and 88 is very unlikely(13/8 players aren't 3 betting with 88). JJ is a logical holding, but is he the type to overplay AA/KK or maybe even AJs in this case?

In hand 2 I cap the turn and call the river. With .5 aggression he almost certainly has QQ KK or 44 and with numbers like his it is more likely QQ or KK.

sthief09 · #6 10-24-2005, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 2 I like calling the 3bet and raising the river. I like this better than either capping and calling the river or capping and raising the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

capping and calling the river 100% has to be better than both of those options. if this guy puts in another raise, he's got a bigger set.

SomethingClever · #7 10-24-2005, 06:55 PM

Hand 1: To be honest, I fold preflop. But that's another story. I'm trying to put myself in Button's shoes here. Does he really call your flop 3-bet and raise the turn with AA, KK or QQ? I doubt it. AJ, sure, but that's an unlikely 3-betting hand preflop for him. If I had the time during the hand to really think about this, I will just call his turn raise and call the river unless I quad up. On the fly, I probably 3-bet the turn and call down from there, though.

Hand 2: KQ is a lot more likely than KK or QQ. 44 also a possibility. I cap the turn for sure. Probably just call most rivers if he leads again, though.

Nietzsche · #8 10-24-2005, 06:56 PM

The first hand I cap the turn and bet/call the river. This can easily be AJ, AA or KK. Laggish?

The villian in hand two seems an unlikely fellow. I see very few of those but 150 hands isn't a lot either. I cap this turn and call on the river.

Jeff W · #9 10-24-2005, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
To be honest, I fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

5.25:1 is too sweet to pass up.

#10 10-24-2005, 06:59 PM

Hi Danenania-

I'm afraid of monsters too, going back to age 5 and a fear of scary creatures in the closet. But most the time they're imaginary, and losing sleep, or potential value when you have a set, is irrational. You're running into an overset maybe one out of 30 times (no I don't have exact math on this but it was chatted about recently in the probability forum.) Because oversets are rare, I want to get in as many bets as possible without spewing.

Hand 1: Keep betting. I want 3 more bets in the pot here with my under full.
His range appears to be AA-TT, AK, AKs maybe AQs. Could he bet AJs here preflop, if he perceived MP3 to be raising light, or does he think that much? Someone with an 8 % PFR doesn't 3-bet pocket 8s unless he's doing it against a suspected steal, but you haven't indicated whether MP3 makes moves. J8 is of course not realistic. Villain has a high enough aggression factor he's easily waiting until the turn to raise his AA-QQ. Also, his fear that you have the jack is probably countered by the fact that you bet the turn - if you really had trips you might be inclined to C/R there. His line is also consistent with AJs, if indeed he'd raise that preflop. I say 3-bet the turn. If he caps it, call it and call down his river bet. If he just calls, bet the river and call his raise if there is one. Anything more than 3 bets and I have an uncomfortable feeling we're beat all too often here.

Hand 2: This one feels more like he's beating us. Still, we have a set and because UTG didn't raise, KQ seems a whole lot more likely than KK (wouldn't he limp/rr that?). QQ is a very possible hand here esp with 1 % pfr. More reads would help. As is I think we're beat but there's 9 ways to make KQ, against 3 ways for KK and 3 ways for QQ. Because you titled this "Monsters are Real" I'm advocating calling down. In the heat of the moment however, I'm probably capping it and calling his river bet. Getting 1-2 bets in here seems best, although I'm not convinced a player with .5 AF 3-bets top two pair.

By the way, I'm new to HUSH, but is there a reason you're posting ring game questions in this forum?