More telling news about Iraqi "democracy"

[sam h]

The Shiites and Kurds cut a deal to amend the ratification process for the constitutional charter. Rather than requiring two thirds of the vote in at least three provinces to reject the constitution, opponents now need two thirds of all registered voters in at least three provinces. Given that overall turnout in the previous elections was only 60% and significantly lower than that in Sunni provinces, the move basically ensures that the constitution will get approved.

With the process clearly a sham, we will now see how the Sunnis react. If significant elements within the Sunni leadership call for a boycott, this will really undermine the already slim chances of keeping the country together.

There is a moderate Sunni leadership, but they can't possibly win over constituents if the Shiites and Kurds give them nothing to offer. The Shiite and Kurd strategy at this point seems to be to force the Sunnis to either (a) acquiesce to complete marginalization in the new power structure or (b) engage in a sectarian conflict that will leave the country divided and the Sunnis without either the oil in the south or the north.

I think this is slowly beginning to dawn on the Bush administration, and that is why there have been rumblings about supporting the return of a secular centrist alliance led by Allawi.