damn marginal hands, poorly played 77

fire_fly · #1 09-20-2005, 04:56 AM

Ok, only reason I coldcalled this pf is because there were 2 or 3 superdonks behind me whom I though would pay me handsomely when I hit my set.

Looking at it now, probably a crappy cc. Agree? Disagree?

Oh, and villains looking tag after 30 hands.

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets,

I thought he'd auto bet this with overs, so even though there is a chance he has AJ or something, I'm protecting my hand/value raising sometimes too with the raise. Good?

Hero raises, CO folds, UTG+1 3-bets

Uh oh, so he MUST have AJ/KJ or overpair right?

, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets,

Oops, should have folded here I think.

Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero folds.

This fold is fine right? I know the rest of the hand was pretty botched, but I don't see me beating anything here. He hadn't acted like a maniac before at least...

Final Pot: 9.75 BB.

thesharpie · #2 09-20-2005, 05:07 AM

Preflop is the only bad part.

fire_fly · #3 09-20-2005, 05:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is the only bad part.

[/ QUOTE ]

You honestly think the turn call and river fold is the best line? Why would I call this turn? He 3bet flop, I can't possibly see where a tag would 3bet this and I'm still ahead...

thesharpie · #4 09-20-2005, 05:14 AM

You have around 6 outs on the turn. If you didn't pick up the gutshot it's an easy turn fold.

Nilbud · #5 09-20-2005, 05:20 AM

I like the flop raise. You want to get rid of the CO and get heads up. You accomplished that, but when villan three-bets, I start thinking about folding the turn unimproved.

Unless you have a read telling you otherwise, I just can see calling the turn bet as being +EV in this situation. How many villans 3-bet the flop with missed overs? How many of them bet out on the turn with missed overs? I think it's pretty obvious he's got something.

Nilbud · #6 09-20-2005, 05:22 AM

I missed the gutshot, that's a good point.

Hoss1193 · #7 09-20-2005, 05:25 AM

I think your pre-flop coldcall was okay, especially given that your read was there would be more cold-calls after you.

The flop raise is on the edge...but if you're going to stay in, better to raise than to fold. Certainly helped to define the hand for you. The 3-bet back to you, though, is obviously the message you don't want to get...AA, KK, QQ, AJ, KJ, possibly QJ or JT (although that would have been a pretty loose preflop raise for someone you've already pegged as TAG), or (worst of all) JJ. I think the main reason you even call the 3-bet is to help preserve table image and keep people from running over you on future hands.
All in all, though, your flop play is probably okay too.

On the turn, however, not sure your call is good. It's pretty clear at this point that you're drawing to 2 outs, so you're getting about 7-to-1 pot odds for a 22-to-1 shot. Your read of the villain indicates he's not trying to buy the pot with a couple of overcards. The uncoordinated board means he wasn't betting a strong flush or open-ender draw on the flop. I think you threw away a BB here.

My only comment about the fold on the river is that you should have done it on the turn. At THIS point, however, since you stayed in, your pot odds are 9-to-1...if you think there's a greater than 10% chance he WAS trying to buy the pot with AK, AQ, KQ, etc., a loose river call here is probably in order. (of course, there's also some chance he was trying to buy you out holding TT or 99 too, which would have been consistent with the preflop raise as well).

Eeegah · #8 09-20-2005, 05:47 AM

Well, if you hit your set on the flop and give yourself the standard 70-75% or so equity flopping a set tends to give, you need around 11-12 bets in the pot for this to be profitable by my math*. They're putting in 6 if they both call like you're hoping, so you'll have to hit your set and they'll have to stick around enough to pay off that much, plus rake. Could happen, but like you said it's damn marginal, especially since you never know if someone might make it 3 bets behind you, leaving you calling one or two more. A lot of things need to fall your way to make this +EV.

Of course, this is assuming you're only putting in those bets to see the flop, and not go on like you did [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

* about 12% to hit your set, so 1/(.12*.75)=11.1, 11.9 if you use 70% equity.

MATT111 · #9 09-20-2005, 07:15 AM

Preflop is bad. Raise or fold (depending on your read on UTG).
Flop-raise is good. Without a read you have to fold to his 3-bet or on the turn.

TripleH68 · #10 09-20-2005, 07:15 AM

I agree with you fly.

I dislike the preflop cold call. If villain has loose raising standards I might 3-bet, otherwise fold.

I also agree that the only reason you would call the turn is if you think you are ahead. If villain is not capable of 3-betting the flop and leading the turn with overs on an uncoordinated board you should fold this turn. Then again this all goes back to raise or fold preflop.

Now keep in mind that my VP$IP is close to 15 so I fall on the tighter side of things.