Ditch this draw or play?

My apologies - I thought it was the OR who was making the big raise... All that typing and dissection for nada :P

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Again, I ask you, with those two cards, why are you willing to risk your entire stack for only having invested 30 chips to see the flop, especially this early in the tourney?

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Why are people so inherently worried about it being early in a tournament?

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I meant early in relation to the size of the blinds and your initial investment in this particular pot. Perhaps it is a better idea to get in on it now, so that in case you DO lose, so you will still have chips to play at this lower blind limit, but you seem to be looking at this as an "I have to win this hand now" opportunity whereas I am looking at it with an "I can afford to wait for a better place to go to war" theory. Both work. But, if I am wrong, it only costs me 30 chips. If you are wrong, it costs you the tournament.

[DireWolf]

Dave, i have a few observations/questions for you.

1)a push here isn't a bluff. We are pushing here because we have enormous equity in the hand. because of the nature of our hand(superdraw), we want overpairs to call, rather than fold. This is because i, nor anyone who is advocating pushing, is counting our pair outs as clean outs, so if another "pair" type hand calls, we now triple up if we hit our hand, rather than double up. BIG Difference.

2) we must include some FE here. Though it is small, There is some chance both villans fold.

3) Now if we want UTG to call with an overpair, and If you are 80% sure that utg has an over pair, do you think he is more likely to call an all in now, or when a four-straight/three flush comes on the turn.

Another basic reason we must push the flop, is because of what happens if we miss on the turn. You said if you call here you could expect a check/smallish bet to you. WHY? if you are thinking both players will call you push, i don't understand why they would slow down on the turn if you just call.

If there is a bigger flush draw out, your screwed either way. Sorry, theres nothing you can do here.

In your edit you address the fact that you may get additional callers if you just call. what hand ranges do you think are calling here.i dont think that many hands are calling here, and you don't want to see a blank turn, with a huge pot, and have UTG+2 push, which he probably will, if as you say, he is protecting against a flush

[DireWolf]

but if your right, you have your original chips-30.

If im right, i have 2-3 times your chips and will bully you like theres no tommorow.

Different schools of thought I guess... In some cases like this, I would rather be patient and wait for a better place to go to war. It would depend on my reads of my opponents. Unless I am reading it wrong, I get the impression that the raiser is only going to get 180 chips from the pot if everyone folds.

If that is the case, I couldn't care less. More power to you if you can do that time and again. The thing is, most people who play like that don't know when to change gears. For that reason, I will use their aggression against them. You can try bullying me if you like, but when you put all those chips in the middle and I rake them in because you thought I was going to fold but ended up showing the best hand, don't say I didn't warn you. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[DireWolf]

IF you are playing me, yes there will be times where you can hang me with my own aggression. This is not one of those times, cause i don't really care if you call.

PS. You better know what your doing though. There is a big difference between stupid lags and smart, thinking lags. On my good days i like to think im in the second catagory.

This is a definite push IMO, for the reasons stated above, as you are making a +EV play and are more likely to get their money in here than when a card that makes your hand comes down, as it will make for a VERY scary board, and they may not want to stick around.

[DonT77]

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can you actually come up with a real argument for doing anything but pushing here? really?

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[Dave D]

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Dave, i have a few observations/questions for you.

1)a push here isn't a bluff. We are pushing here because we have enormous equity in the hand. because of the nature of our hand(superdraw), we want overpairs to call, rather than fold. This is because i, nor anyone who is advocating pushing, is counting our pair outs as clean outs, so if another "pair" type hand calls, we now triple up if we hit our hand, rather than double up. BIG Difference.


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I never said I was counting pair outs as outs, definatly agree with you there. I never said we were bluffing. Rather, we can both agree that we've decided to get all our chips in on this hand at some point, that decision has been made. You're actually supporting my argument when you make point 1. A push is more likely to make all the other actors fold, except 200 chip raisor, or UTG (but as I've said before, probably not both). This is BAD, if I've decided I want to play this hand for all my chips, and I believe I'm drawing to the best hand, I might as well get as many callers as possible. The best way to do this is to call the raise, giving the blinds/UTG good odds to call with either a second best hand, or drawing towards one. With a call, BB may think "hmm, I just paired my 9 w/ A9, yeah i'll draw cuz I'm getting 3:1", pushing will make him fold.

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2) we must include some FE here. Though it is small, There is some chance both villans fold.



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I seriously doubt it given the nature of this tournament. I play it in all the time, early on people love to call with weak hands and there's just too many idiots. Further, a 200 chip pot sized bet implies a hand that's good right now trying to protect against flush draws. Not folding to a push, nevermind UTG+1 (the min raisor).

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3) Now if we want UTG to call with an overpair, and If you are 80% sure that utg has an over pair, do you think he is more likely to call an all in now, or when a four-straight/three flush comes on the turn.



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He may call a push, but I like calling in order to give him a chance to push. Yesterday some idiot limped AA with like 4 limpers to him PF, called a bet from me on a QQK board, then called another bet on turn Q, and then another on the river. He never raised. I wouldn't discount UTG here simply calling the flop either. Or I could be wrong and he just folds. Point is, I believe there's a much bigger chance he'll call the 200 chip raise, than a push, regardless of what I think he has. I want to keep him in the hand, since we've already decided we're going broke on this hand.

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Another basic reason we must push the flop, is because of what happens if we miss on the turn. You said if you call here you could expect a check/smallish bet to you. WHY? if you are thinking both players will call you push, i don't understand why they would slow down on the turn if you just call.



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I've said repeatedly I don't believe both will call a push. I'd put it at about 95% 1 calls, and maybe at best 30% both call. What I was trying to say is I believed there were reasons each individually would have to call a push. I could also be *completely wrong* about UTG and he just dumps his A6o. All signs point to only 1 caller of the push.

I didn't say they would slow down on the turn, someone else did, though I totally agree with that. ESPECIALLY if there are more actors in the hand, the 200 chip raisor will most likely think to himself "man, all these people have called my raise, I gotta slow down". Chances are good he won't think to push here, because that would be the smart thing to do.

What I did say, was that even if 200 chip raisor pushes, we have more than even money odds to call, nevermind if someone else calls his push and since we already decided we're going broke on this hand, we can call. But PUSHING THE FLOP AND GETTING CALLED GIVES US MUCH LESS MONEY THAN WE COULD OTHERWISE GET. Please see my "worst case scenario" from calling.

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In your edit you address the fact that you may get additional callers if you just call. what hand ranges do you think are calling here.i dont think that many hands are calling here, and you don't want to see a blank turn, with a huge pot, and have UTG+2 push, which he probably will, if as you say, he is protecting against a flush

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Early in this tournament, I wouldn't be surprised to see 33 call the 200 chip bet with his two outs. Never underestimate the stupidity of party players, especially early in this tournament.

Even if UTG+2 pushes on a blank turn, and UTG+1 folds here after we call, we still have odds to call due to UTG+1's 200 chip call alone, nevermind if SB, BB, and UTG+1 called the 200 chip raise.

[DireWolf]

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I've said repeatedly I don't believe both will call a push. I'd put it at about 95% 1 calls, and maybe at best 30% both call


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First you say we have no FE. But now you say 5% of the time both will fold. Thats FE.

Second, where are you getting these numbers. You keep saying
that party players are so bad. i agree, so i think if UTG+2 has a hand that can call our push, he will call a lot higher percentage of pushes with UTG as well.


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I could also be *completely wrong* about UTG and he just dumps his A6o.


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This is the main reason you can not call. Lets look at you equity on the flop compared to the turn, if a blank hits.
i won't include UTG, but if you check it out you will find that whether UTG has an overpair doesn't really matter much to you.


FLOP:
Board: Js Qs 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.1717 % 47.17% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 52.8283 % 52.83% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }

TURN:

Board: Js Qs 7h 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.2490 % 29.25% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 70.7510 % 70.75% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }


So, you have to be totally sure UTG will push, or you won't be getting correct odds on the turn when when UTG+2 makes a large bet. Combine that with the 5% or so FE you have and i think you need to push.

For a call to be correct, you have to get remaining players to call AND UTG to push. I don't think this happens enough to not push here.