Ditch this draw or play?

[MLG]

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I would also put UTG on a high PP 80% of the time here, I think he also likely calls an all in.

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so you think two people will call your push and that is an argument against pushing? Thats backwards. If two people call, you have about a 60% chance of tripling up. You aren't pushing here because you always want a fold. You are pushing here because you have a hand that is way too strong to fold, and really benefits from seeing two cards. Its sort of inconsequential what everybody else does. If they fold you pick up a nice sized pot, but even if they never fold you have 14 outs twice, so you are in a nice +EV spot.

On the other hand if you just call and brick the turn if the UTG player folded on the flop you can get bet off your hand if he pushes wasting the 30% of your stack you already put in, and if UTG called then there's about 600 in the pot and you will have to call off the rest of your chips anyway getting roughly 2:1 on a 2:1 shot. Plus if you hit on the turn there is no guarentee you are getting paid off. Its a lot easier for a guy to fold AQ when there is a 4 card straight, or 3 to a flush out there.

Tell me again what makes calling better?

[Elaboration]

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I think I'm calling here.

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And when the turn whiffs and utg+2 pushes?

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I don't think you have any FE b/c villian who bet 200 will call a push. I guess I just have a feeling about it, he bet it so hard, I can't see him letting it go.

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I agree. 85% that he would call.

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I would also put UTG on a high PP 80% of the time here, I think he also likely calls an all in.

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na...A6o or some such, firing the 15 out because he read somewhere you're supposed to bet after raising. If he loaded up with a big bet on the flop I would think different.

Thanks for the reply.

[illegit]

Your post seems to (inadvertantly) argue for pushing how I'm reading it. No FE? So? Come along with me for all I care. The more the merrier. Are you calling and then folding to a push on the turn? If so, that's awful. If not, push now. if they fold, great, if they don't, great. Push = win, win, win. Call = Win, lose, win... or maybe win, lose, lose.

[juris]

The way I read your post only one person has folded, the mp. That leaves 3 behind you no matter what you do.

You put 30 into the pot. Push or fold.

This early, I fold. Preflop, actually. But I wouldn't fault anyone on the push-I just think the fact that 3 are still to act after you before getting to the original raiser may impact the push decision.

[Dave D]

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I would also put UTG on a high PP 80% of the time here, I think he also likely calls an all in.

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so you think two people will call your push and that is an argument against pushing? Thats backwards. If two people call, you have about a 60% chance of tripling up. You aren't pushing here because you always want a fold. You are pushing here because you have a hand that is way too strong to fold, and really benefits from seeing two cards. Its sort of inconsequential what everybody else does. If they fold you pick up a nice sized pot, but even if they never fold you have 14 outs twice, so you are in a nice +EV spot.

On the other hand if you just call and brick the turn if the UTG player folded on the flop you can get bet off your hand if he pushes wasting the 30% of your stack you already put in, and if UTG called then there's about 600 in the pot and you will have to call off the rest of your chips anyway getting roughly 2:1 on a 2:1 shot. Plus if you hit on the turn there is no guarentee you are getting paid off. Its a lot easier for a guy to fold AQ when there is a 4 card straight, or 3 to a flush out there.

Tell me again what makes calling better?

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My point was more along the lines that if we're pushing the flop hoping for folds, it's not happening. I tried to say that 1, but probably not both other actors are going to call. If you guys are saying you don't care, then that's fine, but I thought that that was the reason you wanted to push, b/c you thought you had fold equity. I was trying to give reasons that individually, both of those actors call. the 200 chip raisor is probably doing this with 2 pr or something, he's trying to prevent the flush draw, and he's not laying down to a push. The other guy, (to respond to the other poster) I've played this tourney a lot, I can't tell you how many times I've seen the min raise UTG w/ AA or KK, followed by a min bet post flop. I'm sticking to an 80% chance. He's probably not laying down to a push either.

BUT I don't see it as super likely that both call. I could easily be wrong about UTG, more likely I'm wrong about him than the other guy. The point still is though that you're giving yourself worse odds than you could be. Get what I'm saying?

I've played this tourney a lot, and I could very easily see me calling here,and UTG calling. I could also very likely see UTG pushing and then you get to see what other guy does. That's key. I'm not saying that pushing here is bad per se, it's not a bad move at all. More like I'm willing to take the chance here for more chips early on, and I think there's a good chance that I get checks to me on the turn, or at least small bets. This way has a good chance of making sure both get all their money in on the flop, if they're inclined to do so.

edit: Oh yeah, I didn't notice that there were still the blinds in the hand. That's even more reason I like a call here. Don't scare away more potential callers. My point is basically that I'm playing this expecting to push (or call some pushes) at some point, very likely the flop after I call the bet. I know that my push is going to get called, and since we know I'm probably drawing to the best hand, I want to make sure I get as many possible other callers as I can. I think my way is the best way to do this, rather than pushing when it gets to me.

I am fairly new to this forum. A good portion of my experience is in tourney play. That does not make me a master, but it has given me some insights.

The responses here are interesting. Our hero has a mere 30 chips in the pot, it is still early in the tourney, and it looks to me like a push is being suggested as the best choice, all based on the estimate that the preflop min raiser is holding a PP.

What if one of those PP cards is an A or a K of spades? What if it is AK of spades? MAYBE he is just trying to push you out of the pot now with a bet that size because he flopped a set. If that is the case, why, so early in the tourney, would you be willing to risk everything on what might not even be the nuts if you DO make your hand? I mean, I get the go big or go home theory, but really, if he has a single spade higher than yours, he has a chance at outdrawing and nullifying your flush draw...

Or maybe he is just a weak player who underbet with his original raise, and overbet the pot on the flop with nothing but AKo (neither a spade) and he is just hoping to steal, because, as mentioned earlier, he may have read somewhere that you are supposed to bet when you raise preflop...

The problem is, you can't know any of the above if you have never played this villain before, and especially if it is this early in the tourney, you may not have even seen him play any other hands yet. If you HAVE, has he been aggressive, or weak or ... ?

He may be strong, and just betting the pot on a flush draw as well, but this comes back to our hero drawing to a dead flush, and the straight being the only thing he has to draw to, assuming the villain doesn't also make a higher straight.

Again, I ask you, with those two cards, why are you willing to risk your entire stack for only having invested 30 chips to see the flop, especially this early in the tourney? Why not wait for a better opportunity to go to war? Yes, you have a good flop, but there are some preflop raising hands that leave you drawing dead...

In a cash game, I don't think I would have a problem moving all-in with this scenario, or at least re-raising with the hope of getting a free card on the turn (the choice of which of the above would depend on my read of my opponent), but in a tourney, when I can't just reach into my pocket for more chips, I would hesitate to even call here.

So we come back to the beginning. I would either move all-in or fold, and that would depend on whether or not I was in a serious gambling mood and whether or not I felt my opponent would call. If he was just weak and/or trying to steal the pot, he will fold anyway. If he is strong, he may fold just because he is smart and think he is already beaten because you flopped a straight. Another question then is, assuming our villain IS a strong player, what image does he have of you? Will he think you are bluffing or does he see you as straightforward? If he sees you as straightforward, he may not be willing to risk all his chips even if he knows you are on a flush/straight draw, especially if he only has QQ in the hole. Then he would know that you have a good chance of beating him...

Gotta love poker and the choices we get to make in hold em!

edit:

one more thing to consider ... what if you DO just flat call the 200 and someone behind you pushes ? are you prepared to move all-in ? I think I would be at that point, based on the assumption that they are likely trying to steal with a bluff and you probably have a better hand than they do - BUT I often limp in with AK and I am sure I am not the only player who does that, so you need to decide, do ya feel lucky? well, do ya, punk? er... sorry - You need to decide before calling a 200 chip bet in this situation as to whether or not you are prepared to call an all-in if anyone else acting after you goes all in - if you are not prepared to call a move like that, you might as well fold right now or risk kissing 200 chips goodbye. On the other other other hand, IF you flat call the 200 and both (or even either) of the two callers behind you push, you MIGHT get lucky and triple up if the original raiser goes all in...

Yes, you could be drawing to the best flush/straight, but then again, I might try to keep my answer as vague as possible, because, "it depends"...

[Elaboration]

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I just think the fact that 3 are still to act after you before getting to the original raiser may impact the push decision.

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Wouldn't this be more of a consideration, how many left to act, if I were semi-bluffing with 2PTK, or something? If I push, I'm not really broken up if others call it. Unless they have bigger flush draws. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Dave D]

Just to clarify what I mean by the above post, think about this worst case scenario:

You call 200 chips, only 1 out of 3 people to act calls that. The turn bricks. 200 chip raisor pushes, and you have to call 800 to win 1600, and you're 34% to win, so an even money call against top two. This is the WORST case.

But, if you push the flop, and get called by 200 chip raisor, and only him, you miss out on the 200 chip contribution from someone else.

What if you make your hand on the turn and still have 2 (or more) people in the hand to extract more from.

Where this really pays is if more than 1 person calls the flop OR if you call, then BB pushes, UTG calls, 200 chip raisor calls, or something like that. Which isn't too unlikely.

I just don't see the point in giving yourself worse odds than you could be IF you're committed to putting all your chips in on this play. You could fold too, I guess that's up to you.

[Elaboration]

AJ,

Thank you for the thorough reply. You make great points. I think you have misinterpreted the action though.

utg+1 min raised to 30 and utg+2 called it. On the flop utg+1 the OR bet t15 into a 180 and utg+2 raised to 200 after cold calling pre-flop. I did not put utg+1 on a big pair. In this particular tourney the ep min raising is so incessant that you just cant think that way.

Calling was not really a valid option, for me.

Thanks again-

[ekky]

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Again, I ask you, with those two cards, why are you willing to risk your entire stack for only having invested 30 chips to see the flop, especially this early in the tourney?

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Why are people so inherently worried about it being early in a tournament?

IF you goal is to maximise EV per time unit, then taking a literal coinflip on the first hand (imo) is the best option. The earlier the better. EV neutral to double my chips? Im takin it every time

Factor in this instance, it wont be EV neutral, it will be +EV, then it makes playing this hand almost obligatory.

Whether to push or call is the dilemma for me, and from what I can see, there are people behind to act. Given this, Id tend to call, and attract overcallers.

a) If someone has a flush draw, they wont be pushed out the pot, so if we jam/call against him it will make no difference.

b) we do still need to make the hand at some stage, calling here and getting overcallers increases our pot equity vs equity we put in the pot dramatically, to the extent that even if we get moved in on the turn, we still have the odds to call.

c) the more people in the pot, the better the chances of someone making a good enough *second best* hand to pay us off.

d) if we do call and get overcallers, it mite slow the aggressor down to the extent where we can see the river without being all-in, and having more then one person tagging along for the ride. That way if we miss, we will still have chips.

from the looks of it, it seems like you get best equity from calling to attract overcallers... although I certainly dont think jamming is any worse a move then calling, just a difference in styles.