20-40 commerce...hand reading excercise

[riverboatking]

villian is the best player on the table, very solid, aggressive, and i generally try and stay out of his way, and he knows this.

i have ~5K, he has ~10K.

i straddle and four players call, i check w/66.

flop comes 10d 5d 3h.

villian leads for $300, i call, everyone else folds.

turn 3s (10d 5d 3h).

villian leads for $800, i call.

river 5c (3s 10d 5d 3h).

villian bets $1500.

let me also say for what its worth, that on each street i thought for a little bit before acting, which may help elucidate the range of hands villian puts me on.

i'm not so much asking for advice in this hand as i am posting this because i think its a good excercise for hand reading.
also i thought it might generate some interesting discussion beyond what to do with AA when someone checkraises you on the flop.

[etizzle]

well, due to your deliberating before each round of betting, I think he likely puts you on a weakish ten.

It is unlikely he led out here with a 5 on the flop. If he was leading at it with AT or KT he would have to be scared you had filled up by the river.

I can't imagine him betting AT again here, I think he would either try to pick off a bluff or make a smaller bet hopeing to get called by JT or 9T. All in all I think he is either very strong with TT (although this very well may have tried to pick up the pot preflop) or have a busted flush or straight draw.

[AZK]

Jesus where do you expect us to begin? Is he in EP? Does he limp suited aces early or play tight? He could be betting his missed flush draw thinking his Ace is good by putting you on a draw, due to your delayed reactions..., I doubt he leads into the field with a 5 or a 3, unless it's A3d....hmm, that looks like a def hand...

[fimbulwinter]

no TT otherwise he pops it preflop to take the free straddlebucks lying in there. outside chance he was planning a complex limp/3bet against your assumed straddleraise, but i doubt it.

since you don't raise the flop bet and he leads again, he's probably not doing this with a TPxK kind of hand. smoothcalling here looks like a hand that wants customers.

he doesn't lead out here unless he's willing to lead/3bet all-in due to the bloated pot size due to the straddle. double paired final board really takes a small set out of the equation, so we're probably looking at a strong draw, which he feels he may be dominating you with, hence he keeps firing to carge you for drawing dead.

oh yeah, even less likely he has something like AA-JJ and was planning a LRR if you aren't popping your straddle with 66. if he's so solid, i doubt he's missed that you're not one of those people who are potting it 75% of the time they straddle.

he's either got a monster and is VB'ing or busted draw. gvien above and board, i'd lean towards latter.

so i'm guessing a sooted ace high or something like 7d8d.

fim

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
He could be betting his missed flush draw thinking his Ace is good by putting you on a draw, due to your delayed reactions

[/ QUOTE ]

This forum sucks.

[MoDOH]

i would say that given the action i wouldn´t be too surprised if Villain turned over A3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
the more I think about it the more sense it makes.

he limps in preflop.

On flop he picks up a huge draw w nuflushdraw and a pair. So he puts in a 2/3 potbet ready to push if someone raise.

On turn pot is at ~1000. with trips and nutflushdraw he still have a strong hand so he puts in 4/5 of pot.

On river he boats up and with a pot of ~2600. he now valuebet 1/2 the pot.

So A3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it is...

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Is he in EP?

[/ QUOTE ]

he said villian leads, hero calls, and since hero straddled UTG, it means villian is either SB or BB.


[ QUOTE ]
He could be betting his missed flush draw thinking his Ace is good by putting you on a draw, due to your delayed reactions

[/ QUOTE ]



wouldnt he then just check call? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[AZK]

Well, I guess it was late, but if he thinks rbk has a weak T, a mid pocket pair etc, and wants to push him off it.... no?

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess it was late, but if he thinks rbk has a weak T, a mid pocket pair etc, and wants to push him off it.... no?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but thats quite different than 'he's betting bc he thinks ace might be good', but you know that. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, but thats quite different than 'he's betting bc he thinks ace might be good', but you know that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose it's a stretch, but value betting/bluffing ace high never happens at 20/40 NL or higher?