Did I play this correctly?

[dvo352]

I'm somewhat new to Omaha hi/lo. This hand is in 25 PL Omaha8 on PP. I don't have much info on these players yet since I just sat down for about 1 round at most. Heres how it played out.

#Game No : 1980991027
***** Hand History for Game 1980991027 *****
$25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Sunday, May 01, 02:10:21 EDT 2005
Table Table 36748 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: cwings ( $58.19 )
Seat 2: sleazysue ( $23.87 )
Seat 5: crg223 ( $20.06 )
Seat 7: DVO352 ( $19.4 )
Seat 3: kclightning ( $42.67 )
Seat 10: Nap_Captain ( $24.15 )
Seat 9: muttling1 ( $37.02 )
Seat 8: JHamburger ( $25 )
Seat 4: MRSLYMAN ( $10 )
cwings posts small blind [$0.1].
sleazysue posts big blind [$0.25].
MRSLYMAN posts big blind [$0.25].
JHamburger posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DVO352 [ Td As 9h Qs ]
kclightning calls [$0.25].
MRSLYMAN checks.
crg223 raises [$0.5].
DVO352 raises [$2.6].
JHamburger folds.
muttling1 folds.
Nap_Captain folds.
cwings calls [$2.5].
sleazysue folds.
kclightning calls [$2.35].
MRSLYMAN folds.
crg223 calls [$2.1].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Tc, 6s ]
cwings checks.
kclightning checks.
crg223 checks.
DVO352 bets [$8].
cwings folds.
kclightning calls [$8].
crg223 calls [$8].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
kclightning bets [$10].
crg223 is all-In [$9.46]
DVO352 is all-In [$8.8]
** Dealing River ** [ Ks ]
kclightning shows [ 7h, 2c, 4d, 2h ] three of a kind, twos.
crg223 doesn't show [ 4h, 7c, Ts, Ac ] a pair of tens.
DVO352 shows [ Td, As, 9h, Qs ] a flush, ace high.
kclightning wins $0.54 from side pot #2 with three of a kind, twos.
kclightning wins $1.32 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, twos.
DVO352 wins $58.55 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.
There was no qualifying low hand.


Can someone just critique my play? I'm looking to learn Omaha8 since Hold Em gets boring from time to time. Thanks for the help.

[dvo352]

BTW converter is broken so I am sorry... and this is my first post.

[gergery]

I wouldn't bet that hand out of position, but to work in some deception or on a tight table, fine.

After that it plays itself -- fine.

--Greg

[Buzz]

DVO - I don't think you have a very strong starting hand. I'd rate it marginal or even sub-marginal.

Then the flop gives you the nut spade draw, you bet the pot, and you get two callers. At this point it looks like
four spades are possible scoop cards for you (but one of these pairs the board),
five spades are probably half pot cards for you,
and the other 36 missing cards are not much help.

Thus it looks like the odds are about four to one against you making your flush on the turn. Meanwhile you're getting 3 to 1 odds from the pot plus if you can collect another eight bucks from someone on the river, should you make your flush, looks like you're getting 4 to 1 implied pot odds.

But your implied pot odds are not really that good because when you catch a high spade on the turn or river, slightly more than half the time, low will become enabled, in which case you'll probably have to split the pot. And when you catch a low spade on the turn or river, low will be enabled 100% of the time.

In addition, although the odds against making your flush are four to one, the ten of spades pairs the board, and if any other high spade that appears on the turn, the board will pair on the river an average of 9/44. It's about the same for a low spade on the turn (the board will pair on the river 9/44).

Rather than reducing the pot odds by some factor to compensate for when you only win half of the pot and an opponent wins half of what you, yourself, contribute, I find it easier to increase the hand odds against you by roughly the same factor. I think it works out about the same. At any rate, I figure the hand odds, in terms of what I call "scoop equivalents" to be about 8 to 1 against.
(Here's my mental scratchwork:
.8*3+.4*5 = 4.4
36/4.4 = ~8/1)
Meanwhile the pot odds are about 5 to 1 and the implied fresh money odds are maybe 4 to 1. Since the odds against making your hand are greater than the fresh money odds the pot is laying you, I don't think you have favorable odds to bet here. (I don't even think you have favorable odds to call a bet here).

At any rate, you bet, a neutral jack appears on the turn and you pick up an additional 6 outs for the river, half for the whole pot and the other half for half of the pot. I'd say at this point you have five outs for the whole pot and another eight outs for half of the pot, I wouldn't count the ten or jack of spades (both of which pair the board) one way or the other, and I'd say the other 29 cards are unfavorable for you. I don't want to confuse you, but at this point I'd convert the half pot outs to scoop equivalent outs and figure your hand odds as 29 to 8.2 against you, about 3.5 to 1 against you (but for the whole pot if you win, since that's in terms of scoop equivalent outs). I think mathematically it works out about the same if I figure using "scoop equivalents" instead of fractionating the pot and dividing it in the proper proportions.

At any rate, since you're calling all-in here, you're getting somewhere in the neighborhood of five to one pot odds for your call, which is greater than 3.5 to 1. Therefore, you have an easy call on the 3rd betting round.

I have no opinion regarding your action on the first betting round. You have a marginal or sub-marginal starting hand, but that doesn't mean you don't bet your hand if you see fit to do so.

I don't think you have odds to bet on the second betting round. Your bet here, in my humble opinion is a pure gamble with unfavorable odds. (Worked out for you this time, but expect to lose a fortune if you continue betting with unfavorable odds. By unfavorable odds, I mean the odds against making your hand are greater than the odds the pot is laying you.)

I do think you have odds to call on the third betting round.

Just my studied opinion.

Buzz

[cjs]

Buzz, if dvo checks through the flop, does he have pot odds to call a pot sized bet on the turn? I don't think so, which means a turn fold. Although this worked out in the end a fold was in order.

Look at it from the other player - he has a set of two's and a decent low draw. A much better position on the turn than the hero.

[gergery]

Hmm, maybe it’s not so clear cut. Good post Buzz. I still like betting. I think betting is more EV+ than other actions, tho not by a lot.

Few thoughts:
- I agree the hand is marginal preflop. I agree that once you know its marginal, other factors like opponents, table image, deception, etc. determine whether betting it preflop is a good decision or not.

- I agree with that numbers/calculations presented accurately reflect your chances of having the nuts by showdown.

- I think there are two pieces of equity that you are not including in the analysis: 1) folding equity, and 2) it may not take the nuts to win.

- Folding equity: There are many hands that could have called preflop that would now be likely to fold to your bet, and be incorrect to do so if they could see your cards. Many hands with hearts/diamonds, A2xx hands where x is another low card, another high hand like yours, overpair, etc. Some % of the time your bet will win outright. (20%?)

- You have 9 outs to top two pair/trips that don’t make a flush. That holding will be good enough to win high a portion of the time (20%?) vs. a typical range of hands.

- You have to put your opponents on a range of hands and make your decision based on that. The fact that one opponent had a set is just as irrelevant as the fact that you won the hand. It is certainly unlikely that between two players they were dealt 22xx or 77xx AND played it. Unless your opponent has a set, your TPTK w flush draw has more high equity than just about any other hand.

- The fact that a low will be enabled is different than an opponent having a low. Deal out the turn/river and a low is enabled 80% of the time. But if one opponent has just two remaining low cards (likely the case if they can call your flop bet), then that individual will only make a low ~59% of the time. Big difference.

- The money is not very deep here. Which means that your opponents will not have great implied odds to call, making their folds more likely. It also means that you will almost certainly have odds to call any bet on the turn, meaning you will not be forced to make a difficult decision on the turn if someone puts pressure on you. Both of these are also factors in the decision, and checking would be better if the money were very deep.

- I would not bet in limit Omaha here – the folding equity makes a big difference to how you play this hand. And in this hand at PLO8, if the positioning were reversed and you opponent was able to bet ahead of you and potted it, I would be inclined to fold.

- But in PLO8 I feel a bet is quite clearly EV+ over calling, tho the magnitude of “EV positivity” is not that big.

-Greg

[dvo352]

Well, i raised this hand mostly only because it was a high hand and if a low came on board, I would fold to a bet. However knowing that a lot of people fall in love with their ace/2, if the board came high I am a big favorite. That was my reasoning for the raise. Also, the bet on the flop was a semi-bluff. I had TPTK and the nut flush draw. And I didn't think I was wrong in calling the turn. I had an open ended straight draw plus the nut flush draw and possible trips. If I knew he had trip 2s then I would have thought about it. Plus, I had another caller, I wasn't heads up. And yes, if the player bet I would have folded. But thanks for all the info guys. Will post more hands for analysis.

[Buzz]

Greg - Thanks for the thought provoking response. When I originally read DVO's post I didn't think A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] was a very good Omaha-8 starting hand - and my opinion has not changed. The main feature of the hand is the suited ace of spades, but when you hold this hand, the board will fail to flush in spades about 93% of the time, and some of the time that it does flush it also pairs. I think something of the order of one time out of twenty this hand will end up making a winning spade flush.

So DVO bets the hell out of the hand and ends up with the winning spade flush. Good for DVO.

Of course there are some other things the hand has going for it too. But all in all, I really don't think it's a very good starting hand - and then I think the flop might look deceptively good to someone who's not used to playing for split pots and also is not used to opponents having *all* *those* *cards*.

However, in representing the point of view for betting the hell out of the hand, you, as always, make some very cogent points.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
"if dvo checks through the flop, does he have pot odds to call a pot sized bet on the turn? I don't think so, which means a turn fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's not what happened. As it was, DVO had favorable odds to call the turn bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Although this worked out in the end a fold was in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

[ QUOTE ]
Look at it from the other player - he has a set of two's and a decent low draw. A much better position on the turn than the hero.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the other player was leading. But because of the money already in the pot, DVO had odds to call.

Buzz

[Ribbo]

Make that 9 into a deuce and I will gladly bet the hell out of the hand.