Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw

[adanthar]

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Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

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Because you have no reason to believe they are there?

Come on guys, you can't fold this and shouldn't even think about anything but pushing for over half a second.

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Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

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Because we know our equity against these hands. My point is simply that there's a huge amount of hands that we're ahead of that pay off.

[Michael C.]

If one of the five players has two overcards, one of which is a club, they're tied with you. If someone has a straight or flush, you're behind (with four people in the pot, the chances of someone having one of those hands is not SO insignificant). If someone calls with either the J or A of clubs and any second card, they have a lot of outs. So most of the people calling here are ahead of you or even with you. A lot of these hands leave you with outs and given the odds may justify your push. But I don't see why this such a clear push and why it is so uncommon for someone to have two clubs, or two straight cards. That's a lot of cards, and suited cards and connectors are exactly what a lot of people limp with. Maybe it's a push, but it's not so clear to me without more thought.

[tigerite]

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Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

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Because you have no reason to believe they are there?

Come on guys, you can't fold this and shouldn't even think about anything but pushing for over half a second.

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Got to agree. This is a push.

[aujoz]

my newbie view on this:
-the pot's big enough that winning it puts you in a good position late-ish in the tourney
-there's a good chance everyone will fold
-even if they don't fold, you're in a good spot to win with your very strong draws

=push, in my view

[nolanfan34]

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Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

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Because you have no reason to believe they are there?

Come on guys, you can't fold this and shouldn't even think about anything but pushing for over half a second.

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This is pretty much the crux of the discussion, and the reason I thought the hand was interesting. When I saw the hand, I immediately thought easy push. But there were a number of people who said the same things as some have in this thread, regarding just how strong the draws are, and whether hero is drawing live, etc. I thought it was interesting the people pretty much were in one camp or the other - not much middle ground.

After looking at the math, and the ranges of possible hands, I do think this is something I'd probably push with as well. Particularly because it's a SNG, and you can't pass up the chance to pick up this many chips I think, when you have a small edge and there's a chance that people will fold. I think it's important to remember that while the board looks dangerous to hero because of possible draws, it looks equally dangerous, if not moreso, to an opponent who may be ahead now with an overpair, but doesn't have a club or a straight draw.

Thanks for the discussion on this.

You are assuming one caller? This is a 10 sng. Every club, pair, and 10 will come calling.You are behind TPTK, and even if you are ahead of some hands many hands will actually be favored? The equity numbers are not that impressive? You lose the hand your tourney is done. You win the hand and you probably lose all future fold equity.

FOLD!

[FlyWf]

The problem is that if you get more than one caller you are done. The following hands are likely to call:
Made straights
Made flushes
Sets
Two pair
Overpairs
A ten with anything else going for it(club, J/7 kicker)
A, K, J of clubs. Q of clubs if it's second card is anything decent.

The pot is big, the pot is multiway, and people at the $11s love to call. Don't semibluff big fields on scary flops, especially not when you aren't first in. You're best case a coinflip, likely a dog, sometimes drawing nearly dead. Foldyfoldyfoldfold.