Typical online overpair OOP scenario - Page 2

swarm · #11 12-07-2005, 05:19 PM

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in 6 max, I push normally, or call to get in on the turn, in full ring i just fold without a read.

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So you fold out the hands you beat and get called by hands that beat you? What's the point? Do you really think that villan would do this with a draw in a pot this size? Either he's drawing to a two outer or your are.

aggie · #12 12-07-2005, 06:33 PM

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So you fold out the hands you beat and get called by hands that beat you? What's the point? Do you really think that villan would do this with a draw in a pot this size? Either he's drawing to a two outer or your are.

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I'd have to disagree with this....If villian does not have a set a big draw is a strong possibility. Minraising a big draw is a bad play in this spot but lot's of people at this level play subpar.....And often times that draw will check behind on the turn and villian gets a cheap shot at you. This is not a way ahead or way behind situation because the board is extremely draw heavy.

swarm · #13 12-07-2005, 06:40 PM

sure sometimes it's a draw, i would say 90% of the time it is either a set or a pocket pair. If you are extremley worried about the draw, call and bet a non diamond turn.

scdavis0 · #14 12-07-2005, 06:49 PM

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Usually fold and suspect set with that action.

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vomit

soah · #15 12-07-2005, 06:55 PM

Raise more preflop. If you make it $30 preflop and get raised on the flop by any sort of rational player your hand is usually no good.

aggie · #16 12-07-2005, 07:00 PM

This was a 6 max game for those who asked. I got all the money in on the flop and got beat by a set of 7's

I think the best way of thinking about this hand is by thinking about the different possibilities for the villian.

1. a set...This seems very likely and has me drawing to 2 outs. If i decide to continue with this hand villian will almost certainly stack me. (40%)

2. Big draw...This could the nut flush draw (11 outs), OESFD (14 outs), GSSFD (12 outs), pair + FD (13 outs)....It seems sort of goofy for villian to minraise one of these hands but it happens. And if i call the flop, villian might take the free card on the turn or bet me out of the hand.....If a diamond, straight card, or overcard comes, i still won't know where i'm at. If i reraise the flop I can't get villian off the hand and they will be close to a coinflip (25%)

3. Overpair to flop or TPTK....JJ's-8's or A7...This is my best case scenario and if i reraise i probably WON'T get paid off (if i call the flop and checkraise the turn i might get paid of a little). These hands may not be as probable as some think because they did not PFR (35%)

So my best guess is 40% of the time i'm getting my stack in with a 2 outer, 25% of the time i'm getting my stack in on a coinflip (probable small favorite) and 35% of the time i take a smaller pot down as a big favorite. The problem with this hand is i'm either losing a big pot or winning a small one (or coinflipping).

I know i'm over simplifying things and villian can have other hands or may actually fold a draw, etc.....But my hand is very difficult to play while villians is fairly simple (because if i continue villian should know what i have)....

After all this analysis i think the best play is to FOLD the flop against an unknown opponent although it's probably fairly close

ahnuld · #17 12-07-2005, 07:09 PM

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in 6 max, I push normally, or call to get in on the turn, in full ring i just fold without a read.

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So you fold out the hands you beat and get called by hands that beat you? What's the point? Do you really think that villan would do this with a draw in a pot this size? Either he's drawing to a two outer or your are.

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I know english is a tricky language, so ill make myslef more clear. I will call to get allin on the turn and make a worse hand pay me off. As well, if I know villan is a calling station, I will push flop to get called by TP. Goodday sir.

ahnuld · #18 12-07-2005, 07:14 PM

Sometimes folding is okay, but I have alot of notes that read "tard" and I gladly push or get in on the turn. But I play like an agressive monkey and do that with AK, so If they see me do that, they will riase me with TP and get allin when I have the overpair. My game is volatile, but I get paid off alot. 2200 swings today from hight to low. If you can deal with big swings, I suggest playing more agressive poker, and these hands become no brainer lets get allin deals.

You also could just call and play poker. Deal with the card that came up however you see fit. Straight card comes off, boom, bet out and see what he does, if he moves, fold, if he calls and river blanks, check call ect.

aggie · #19 12-07-2005, 07:25 PM

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You also could just call and play poker. Deal with the card that came up however you see fit. Straight card comes off, boom, bet out and see what he does, if he moves, fold, if he calls and river blanks, check call ect.

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I agree with most of what you say...I do play pretty aggressive (ranging from TAG to LAG depending on mood)....I don't however believe you can call the flop and make a decision after that....The next bet pot commits me (whether from him or me). If i call and bet out and he moves in i'm not making a "big laydown" on a draw heavy board. Maybe i can call with the intention of getting it allin on a safe card but i'm still getting stacked by a set (and i'm allowing draws to get there)...I think i pretty much have to make up my mind on the flop.

And yes, this hand is much easier to play if you have a wild LAG image...But that's not always possible (for instance because i just sat down)

ahnuld · #20 12-07-2005, 07:49 PM

Good point, didnt realise the pot was so big already. Another point not yet dicussed is your prf. way to small imo. My rule is 4xbb + 1bb for each limper. If im a blind, I change it to 5xbb +1bb per limper, so I would have made it 28 to go or maybe 30 if I have a good image. 1 caller is alot easier to play against than 2. Then on the flop, you will be ahead alot of the time when only faced with one opponent, and if hes a solid guy, you could fold after that flop bet.

In your current situation, I do like pushing given my image, but I can definitly understand a fold. With your image, you are right, calling is wrong. But I think folding over 50% of the time is wrong too. I would push half the time and fold half the time just to mix it up and not get ppl playing around with me.