Donkiest play ever?

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps. I was thinking that the fact this is a draw-heavy board actually makes your slowplay better. On a completely dry board, I think you should continue playing fast.

I'm only saying that if you feel like you've been playing too aggro and the table is ready to fight back, this is a perfect time to continue playing fast.

[/ QUOTE ]
I dont agree with this, because this a draw heavy board you wanna play it fast, not slow! that way you can play your draws fast too, i wouldnt mind slowplaying this if it is a completely dry board; with a ton of draws, im making him pay to see any more cards, and he also may feel that since youre playing lag, you may well hold something like a gutshot+pair on this flop. If he can lay down AQ/AJ to a flop raise here, you obv arent playing lag enough

[tiger_style]

there is absolutely no way you can know he doesnt have two pair or a set here, and then no way you can call this river

youre exactly right about your assessment of your own lay you donkey, make that lag style pay off!

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
there is absolutely no way you can know he doesnt have two pair or a set here

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true, nothing is 100%, but your tone is fairly ignorant. Conservatively estimating, i've played 200 hours with this particular villian. I've seen him with 100's of very strong hands on draw heavy boards. I have NEVER seen him make an underbet when he had 2 pair or better (and no reason to believe he was behind). It's just not this guys style so i'm almost certain he does not have a set or two pair (let's say at least 99%)....He also does not semibluff or lead out with less than top pair....Period....So he does not have a flush draw or some pair / draw combination.

[thabadguy]

Do i know this guy?

[aggie]

Let's assume all my assumptions are correct and analyse this hand from the turn on. Villian always has either AQ or AJ. Villian Folds 100% of the time i raise the turn. He calls 100% i bet the river ($250). And I pay him off every time he hits his straight ($300)

40 river cards i win whats in the pot now (210 + 75) plus $250 on the river. 4 river cards i lose the $75 that i call on the turn and $300 dollars on the river.

(535*40 - 375 *4)/44 = $452 EV

If i raise now i win what's in the pot

(210 + 75) = $285EV

Clearly, if all my assumptions are correct, slowplaying here is best by quite a bit. The question is, how certain do i need to be about my assumptions?

EDIT: if my math is wrong here please let me know (i'm not sure i'm thinking about this correctly)

[tiger_style]

you were speaking in absolutes and a self depracating manner

im not going to argue the self depracation, you asked for reinforcement

the only absolute is that nothing is absolute, and he could have mistyped or it could be a friend or he could be taking lessons from Ciaffone, WHO KNOWS?!?

i still hate how you played this hand

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume all my assumptions are correct and analyse this hand from the turn on. Villian always has either AQ or AJ. Villian Folds 100% of the time i raise the turn. He calls 100% i bet the river ($250). And I pay him off every time he hits his straight ($300)

40 river cards i win whats in the pot now (210 + 75) plus $250 on the river. 4 river cards i lose the $75 that i call on the turn and $300 dollars on the river.

(535*40 - 375 *4)/44 = $452 EV

If i raise now i win what's in the pot

(210 + 75) = $285EV

Clearly, if all my assumptions are correct, slowplaying here is best by quite a bit. The question is, how certain do i need to be about my assumptions?

EDIT: if my math is wrong here please let me know (i'm not sure i'm thinking about this correctly)

[/ QUOTE ]
Aggie, your math seems slightly flawed to me(i think u dont wanna see about 7 cards on the river :if he has AQ then 3 queens and 4 jacks, and vice versa), but the problem i have is your reasoning that he will fold to a turn bet but call a river unimproved. I think he would probably only call river when he hit his two pair, but in that case, you dont know if he has a straight or 2 pair, and if he checked it to you, you might be hesitant to bet too.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
(i think u dont wanna see about 7 cards on the river :if he has AQ then 3 queens and 4 jacks, and vice versa)



[/ QUOTE ]

why 7...my math assumes i'm paying off when he hits his straight so i know of the 7 scare cards but also know that only 4 of them hurt me.

[ QUOTE ]
but the problem i have is your reasoning that he will fold to a turn bet but call a river unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do see that it 1000 times easier for villian to call the river though right?
1. villian will probably check his hand on the river no matter what (unless he hits one of his 4 outs). If i bet villian is going to have a very hard time putting me on a hand that beats him. I almost never slow play dangerous boards so he'll put me on a diamond draw and pay me off.
2. He know's he won't have to face any further "shells" when he calls on the river. He's definitely not wanting to play a big pot (which is why he's betting so little). He closes the action on the river so will be much more inclined to pay off.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he would probably only call river when he hit his two pair, but in that case, you dont know if he has a straight or 2 pair, and if he checked it to you, you might be hesitant to bet too.


[/ QUOTE ]

Remember that this is the least tricky opponent in the world and he does not check the nuts. If a Q or a J comes on the river and he checks to me, i have the 2nd nuts and i'm value betting.

Remember, with the math i'm assuming that all my assumptions are 100%. Obviously this can't be the case. but i do have a very unusualy strong read in this case (which is very rare for me). So the question is how certain do i need to be about my assumptions to make play that i made correct? Obviously you can't know how strong my read is but just assume that i have the strongest read of how this guy is going to act possible

In reallity he clearly does not have to pay me off on 40 rivers to make slowplaying more + EV than raising the turn.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
the only absolute is that nothing is absolute

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Thanks for the insight!

[ QUOTE ]
and he could have mistyped or it could be a friend or he could be taking lessons from Ciaffone

[/ QUOTE ]

Take the context clues buddy, this is a live game. Unless my opponent has an identical twin brother i'm certain of who i'm playing against.
But wait, i forgot, there's no absolutes...Sorry

[ QUOTE ]
i still hate how you played this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this quip is very valuble to me....i'm going to take your advice and begin improving immediately

[aggie]

you said:
[ QUOTE ]
there is absolutely no way you can know he doesnt have two pair or a set here, and then no way you can call this river

[/ QUOTE ]

and

[ QUOTE ]
the only absolute is that nothing is absolute,

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmmm