Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It

[Jeffage]

Typical game, six handed. I have AKo on the button. Two callers, I raise, blinds fold and we see the flop three-handed. Flop is K-7-5, no suits. Check to me, I bet, first limper checkraises, second limper calls two cold and I call. First limper seems aggro, second one seems pretty tight so I'm concerned with his flop coldcall on this ragged board and I'm thinking set. Turn is a deuce. Check, check, check. River is a 9. Check to second player who bets, I ignore my read and decide to raise, saying I'll fold to a 3-bet. First player folds, second player now reraises. Why is it that I can read a situation so well but then do something like this anyway, and not only that, but pay it off? Am I the only one who occasionally outplays himself like this?

Jeff

[DeeJ]

And the river 9 means that 86o just got there, and makes 99 into a set.
I think you need to call the river because of the danger you predicted, and the draw which came in. I also 'outplay' myself (as a corollary) by seeing both monsters and bluffs where they ain't and the straightforward interpretation of the betting pattern would be far better....

I'm not super-keen on the river raise even if you are ahead. Combined with the possibility of getting 3-bet, it seems like a call is clearly the way to go.

[stoxtrader]

nice hand until the river. river play seems like a relatively substantial mistake.

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
river play seems like a relatively substantial mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is. I don't know why I don't listen to my first instinct sometimes when it's usually correct. I love my turn play and then I deviate from it "just in case" I was wrong so I won't miss bets. Then I cost myself. It's just dumb, don't know where my mind was on this one (or lately for that matter, but that's another issue and another forum). I was just wondering if anyone utilizes "confused" logic like this sometimes and how to not do it ever (obv this isn't SOP for me).

Jeff

[Paluka]

Why not just bet the turn here and fold to a raise? If the guy has a set, you aren't going to catch up on the river.

[Solami17]

Yeah, great play until the river. I cant see how a raise is proper here

[Jeffage]

I dunno, I will do that at times also. But in this case, with top top, I'd rather see the showdown to make sure I'm correct and avoid the turn checkraise (which has an outside chance of coming from a worse hand). Is this weak thinking here? Obviously, there are many times where bet-folding this turn is a good idea, but I felt better guaranteeing myself a one bet showdown here based on the flop action. Then, of course, I horrifically botched the river play.

Jeff

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather see the showdown to make sure I'm correct and avoid the turn checkraise (which has an outside chance of coming from a worse hand). Is this weak thinking here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if he has a worse hand it's KQ, meaning he'd have to be somewhat stupid to now raise the turn here. So it's v. unlikely. I would be happy taking this line with a complete unknown.

Turn bet is a must. You either go 2 bets when ahead and 1 bet when behind or compared to your line, 2 bets when ahead and 3 when behind.

[phish]

I'm totally puzzled.

Why not bet the turn? Couldn't he have raised with middle pair or top pair weaker kicker in that situation. and the other caller could have a draw or just a K. You seemed to have played this awfully scared given your hand, the number of players, and the flop.

And after you checked the turn, I think raising the river and is fine since he could be betting just KQ. Calling the reraise isn't horrible given the pot-size, but you're most likely beat.