Two Plus Two Older Archives Discounting Outs
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#11
01-04-2005, 11:13 PM
 NegativeEV Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 118
Re: Discounting Outs

[ QUOTE ]
You have 2 . Only 11 left in the deck. Chances of any player being dealt two is about 4.5%. And there are only 5 other players in the hand. The fact that they are in the hand does not signifcantly raise the chances that they are holding suited cards since people limp w/ a lot of different cards than suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math using 11/52 to get the 4.5% seems flawed. You can see 5 cards so I think 11/47 is more appropriate as your starting point. Not a big change, but when you run the math all the way through (1-(1-.054)^5))) it looks like the math tells you there is a ~ 24% chance someone else has a flush draw.

Now 24% based only on the math tells you that another flush draw is unlikely, HOWEVER, you have other information to work with given the flop action (i.e. min bet, raise, re-raise), and I think the flop action should indicate that a flush draw is fairly likely.

Short story- math and likely limp hands tell me another flush draw is unlikely. Longer story- flop action (better indicator of holdings) tells me a flush draw is fairly likely.

I would discount to 7-8 outs for purposes of analyzing pot size and would generally fold with the 3:1 pot. I would assess hero's folding equity at close to zero in this circumstance at a low limit SnG.

EDIT: note- the math flaw only changes the 4.5% to 5.4% which would only change the likelihood of another flush draw from 21% to 24%, thus not a big difference. The real KEY is the betting pattern and information gained on the flop which tells HERO that the flush draw may be in trouble.
#12
01-04-2005, 11:21 PM
 RobbyRockets Junior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 5
Re: Discounting Outs

Well, eat your words if you must. For me, it was a very informative post. Here's why:

1. a common question (it's happened to me)
2. an assumption
3. counter of poker theory
4. then research
5. and the proof

IMO, well done.
#13
01-05-2005, 12:09 AM
 texasrattlers Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Texas Posts: 228
Re: Discounting Outs

Yep, I forgot about the 3 board cards in coming up w/ my calcs. However, 2 of them are [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which makes the liklihood of any single player holding two [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] even less (3.3%).

Just as importantly, I think the scenario that Scuba came up with for your opponents hands (KK, 88) is more likely. The betting pattern does not seem to indicate other flush draws.
#14
01-05-2005, 07:06 AM
 mart_ph Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 72
Re: Discounting Outs

[ QUOTE ]
But I find it severely detrimental to post general 'advice' saying this is a hand to fold PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may only be a beginner in most eyes, but I'm yet to read any tournament articles, or postings on this group which say that this hand is not a hand to fold EARLY in an sng. I know it's in the SB, but I was merely recounting what i have learnt from other sources as well as this forum.

Sorry if you think this is detrimental.
#15
01-05-2005, 08:28 AM
 scooby Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 112
Re: Discounting Outs

omigosh...the advice earlier was absolutely terrible. Call preflop 100% of the time. If you can't play this hand in a multiway pot, stop playing poker. Then, you can either lead out and then push all in over a raise, or just checkraise big. The *ONLY* time you're in trouble is if you get called by a bigger flush draw and a set...hence the push to get a slightly bigger flush draw to fold You don't give a lickety split if AA or KK is out there and limped for some reason. Against only one caller, you're only worried about a set, and still that's about 58-42. Dead money. Lastly, this is not a bad beat. In a multiway pot, as long as you get the other flush draws out, you're fine:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=694973
pokenum -h 9h 9s - 4d 5d - 7c 9c -- 3c 6d 8d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 3c 8d 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9h 240 26.58 651 72.09 12 1.33 0.272
5d 4d 452 50.06 451 49.94 0 0.00 0.501
9c 7c 199 22.04 692 76.63 12 1.33 0.227

The problem comes when you allow a hand like j [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] t [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to come along. So push to get it out:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=694974
pokenum -h 9h 9s - 4d 5d - 7c 9c - jd td -- 3c 6d 8d
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 3c 8d 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9h 183 22.32 625 76.22 12 1.46 0.230
5d 4d 161 19.63 659 80.37 0 0.00 0.196
9c 7c 199 24.27 609 74.27 12 1.46 0.250
Jd Td 265 32.32 555 67.68 0 0.00 0.323

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