Football overtime

[valenzuela]

I much rather have a tie.

[jstnrgrs]

I think that football overtime needs to be:
1) Football (this eliminates college and XFL)
2) Fair (this eliminates NFL, NFL Europe / Arena, and single period (non-sudden death) overtime)
3) Over in a timely manner (this eliminates single and double period (non-sudden death) overtime)

[BadBoyBenny]

Why is the NFL Europe / Arena unfair?

[jstnrgrs]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is the NFL Europe / Arena unfair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because if both teams score on their first posession, then it becomes sudden death which means a big advantage to the team that had the ball first.

[wjmooner]

change it so that each team must have an even number of possessions, including after the 1st possession. There's your answer. Arena League it is.

WJ

[SL__72]

I'm almost sure the coin toss winner's have historically won over 50% of the time, although only slightly, less then 51% I think. 5% ties sounds about right.

[SL__72]

Also, I've never seen a stat on it but I think winning the toss in college (being able to go second) has got to be a pretty big advantage too.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
jstnrgrs' idea: One team (detrmined by a coin toss) gets the ball on its own 5 yard line. The game then proceeds as normal (4 downs to get ten yards, punt on 4th down, etc.) and is sudden death.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is close to the idea that I like, but the 5 yard line is too far back -- that close to their own endzone, the team on offense is less likely to score next than the team on defense.

Instead, have one team decide where the ball will be placed to start the overtime. Then the other team decides who takes possession at that spot.

In effect, this would lead to most OTs starting at around the 15 yard line, though there would be some interesting exceptions if a team feels it has a great advantage on one side of the ball or the other. It would also be interesting to see teams trying to goad their opponents into taking a -EV play by starting the ball at or inside the 10 and hoping they'll take possession anyway.

[SL__72]

How is this much different then NFL overtimes? You are basically suggesting that they move the kickoff line up 5-10 yards for overtime.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
How is this much different then NFL overtimes? You are basically suggesting that they move the kickoff line up 5-10 yards for overtime.

[/ QUOTE ]

The main reason for changing the overtime rules is that the receiving team has an advantage because they will very seldom start their drive inside the 20, which means that they are more likely to score first than the kicking team.

However, the point at which the defensive team is more likely to score next is discoverable with enough data. Starting overtime in the way I suggested would ensure that, in general, neither team would derive an advantage from getting the ball first because that advantage would be nullified by field position.