Party poker bad beat jackpot

[thedorf]

What's up donks,

Hey, anyone know when it actually pays to play in the party poker bad beat games. I play 15/30 regularly and have never played the bad beat games. the details of the jackpot are below. Just wondering if any of you math geniuses have done the work to find out when it's actually a + ev proposition. Gracias

Dorf

Fund distribution
Every time the jackpot is hit, 70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee. Of the distributed amount, 50% will go to the loser of the hand (the Bad Beat), 25% to the winner and 25% will be split between the other seated players who actively participated in the hand (any player sitting out will not receive a portion of the jackpot).

To Qualify for the Progressive Bad Beat Jackpot

Bad beats will be paid out on real money Hold'em games (Limits $2/$4, $3/$6, $5/$10, $10/$20 and $15/$30); available under the Bad Beat Jackpot Tab only.
4 or more players must be dealt into the hand.
Players sitting out do not qualify for the jackpot.
The losing hand must contain four of a kind (8’s) or better to qualify.
The BEST hand of the winner and the loser must include both the hole cards and the hand must go to a showdown.
The hand must be raked and jackpot contribution collected from the hand to qualify for a bad beat jackpot.
If there are two or more hands that qualify for the jackpot within one hand #, then the two highest hands will be considered for the jackpot, with the highest hand being the winning hand (the winner) and the second highest hand winning the bad beat (the loser of the hand).
In the event that two qualifying Jackpot hands are hit at exactly the same time, the hand starting first (based on our system clock) will be awarded the jackpot.
Players must play their hands independently and cannot tell opponents how to act or reveal their hand to other players. Violations will disqualify the hand for the Jackpot.

It's highly dependent on the makeup of your opponents and your style of play. Estimates range from $180k to $230k as the profitability "flipover" point.

I did an analysis based on the frequency of hits and the jackpots awarded during the first half of 2005 and concluded the number is between $200k and $220k for typical players.

Bear in mind that the cost of play -- the $.50 rake -- is the same regardless of your level of play. The cost of that $.50 also tends to be compensated for somewhat by two facts:

1. Fools are attracted to the jackpots, and they make for easy prey.
2. Many people are tempted to come in with inferior hands if they smell jackpot potential. Many people will call with three cards to a small straight flush regardless their odds; with a big enough pot, it may even be correct for them to call, but it's still correct for you to value bet them and profit the 95% of the time their draw leads nowhere.