Rejecting an EV+ call?

[psuasskicker]

20 player private tournament on PStars. It's a tourney among friends and, despite our keeping it a low buy-in, it's a "showcase the skills" and "bragging rights" tournament filled with tough players, so it tends to play very tough. The money isn't the real prize, the bragging rights are...but the money's still in consideration, obviously.

This is the final table. Payout is:
1st - 50%
2nd - 30%
3rd - 20%

Seat 2: MrTouchstone (3,955 in chips)
Seat 3: AcmeSalesRep (10,095 in chips)
Seat 4: hiddengem (2,752 in chips)
Seat 5: psuasskicker (5,370 in chips)
Seat 7: ericb100 (5,875 in chips)
Seat 8: pokergal3965 (1,953 in chips)

All post ante of 25
pokergal3965: posts small blind 100
MrTouchstone: posts big blind 200

Dealt to psuasskicker 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
AcmeSalesRep: folds
hiddengem: folds
psuasskicker: raises 450 to 650 <---- total play for the pot, duh
ericb100: folds
pokergal3965: raises 1,278 to 1,928 and is all-in <---- D'oh!
MrTouchstone: folds
psuasskicker: ???
<Pot: 3,028>

Let's ignore whether or not it was a good spot to bluff. PF raises were taking the blinds, and the short stack has released their hand when in the blinds before. Bottom line, I was there with my image and my knowledge and think it may not have been an ideal time to try to pick up the blinds, but don't think it's any sort of major mistake.

I put pokergal's range of hands such that I felt I was right around a 2 to 1 dog to win the hand if I called.

What I want to know is, who makes this call and why, and who folds this and why.

The facts:
- I'm getting 2.37 to 1 on my money.
- If I fold, I have 4,720 remaining in my stack and am still third in chips.
- If I call and lose, I have 3,442 left in my stack and am fifth in chips.
- If I call and win, I have 7,298 in my stack, am second in chips, and have knocked the field down to five players.
- The 1,278 chips to call represents 27% of my remaining stack.
- My pot equity in calling is +7.33 chips (double check my math but I'm 99.99% sure that's right), so I clearly have a pot equity edge.

Results and reasoning later.

- C -

[psuasskicker]

Terribly sorry...

EV here is 157.33 chips, not 7.33 chips!

- C -

[ansky451]

What sort of range is she restealing with here? that is a crucial bit of information. If shes a loose cannon, and you probably have 2 live cards its a call. If shes a rock, you should think twice. (then still probably call)

[schwza]

i think 2:1 is optimistic, but haven't pokerstoved or anything. it's close to 2:1 though, so i'd call.

[SrGuapo]

I say call. Bragging rights here are too important and you can't pass on any +EV, however thin it may be. EV of bragging rights is huge.

[locutus2002]

Easy fold from all angles.

You raised to steal, follow through and toss it.
You're still in great shape in the tournament with 30+XBB.
You don't have to show you are donking it up with 92s.
You confer not only 2:1 chip advantage, but 2:1 bragging rights advantage on a chick (a stimga I can live with, but might be tough for some).
You are a favorite to be the short stack with no FE.


[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[CieloAzor]

If you fold getting 2.37 to 1 here, they'll know you had garbage AND that you'll throw it away rather than making them beat a hand. That's no good. You're not even crippled that badly if you call and lose. I'd look her up.

[AlphaWice]

But, this is a donk tourney, isnt it? Shouldnt he fold and wait, because he is a much better player?

[locutus2002]

A much better player calls with 92?


suited. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]