ballsy play or just lucky?

Mariogs379 · #1 09-03-2005, 08:56 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter

SB (t2720)
Hero (t1230)
UTG (t1710)
MP (t2390)
CO (t4540)
Button (t910)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button calls t150, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (t375) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t375) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t375) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t760 (All-In), Hero calls t760.

Final Pot: t1895

Weatherhead03 · #2 09-03-2005, 08:58 PM

Lucky

Mariogs379 · #3 09-03-2005, 09:01 PM

sorry i didnt include it he had A5 for just a pair of nines
why do you say lucky?
dont you think he didnt want a call, that he just wanted to steal the pot?

Freudian · #4 09-03-2005, 09:07 PM

Did you hear Vince Van Patten in your head while doing it? If yes, then it was a ballsy play.

wiggs73 · #5 09-03-2005, 09:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
sorry i didnt include it he had A5 for just a pair of nines
why do you say lucky?
dont you think he didnt want a call, that he just wanted to steal the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually like the play because the river paired the board. I think with top pair, he would have likely led the flop. By the turn, if he had a pair he probably would have bet. If he checks the turn with any pair, then I don't see him betting the river, he'd probably just check and hope for a showdown. That leaves the possibility that he is slowplaying something, but in that case, I think a value bet would be more likely on the river.

A read would obviously help, but I'm not surprised that the 2s held up at all. Tough call though, but a good one. Next time don't post the results for a while, let some discussion develop.

Weatherhead03 · #6 09-03-2005, 09:50 PM

What about 33, 44, 55, or someone just pushing with nuts or semi nuts and hoping for someone to make a dumb call? It is super super read dependent and unless I have a very good read I dont like calling that many chips with 22.

Michael C. · #7 09-03-2005, 09:56 PM

I think it's read-dependant as well. If he's a normal, not super-sharp player, I think there's a better chance he's bluffing with a push than by betting 300 or so. But he could also have a medium pocket pair, and since the last card probably didn't pair you, that could explain the bet. I can't really say if I'd call there or not, but I'd guess not without a read on the player.

valenzuela · #8 09-03-2005, 09:57 PM

are u winning over 50% of the time when u make that call?

#9 09-04-2005, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
are u winning over 50% of the time when u make that call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling 760 to win 1135...

1135 / 760 = 1.49

1.49 / (1.49 + 1) = 60%

1 - 60% = 40%

[ QUOTE ]
are u winning over 40% of the time when u make that call?

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

microbet · #10 09-04-2005, 12:55 AM

$EV fold = .0926
$EV call and win = .177
$EV call and lose = .0447

.0926 = .177 * x + .0447 * (1 - x)
.0926 = .177x + .0447 - .0447x
.132x = .0479
x = .36 = 36%

Which is wierd so I probably made a mistake. I was expecting the number to be greater than 40%. I've got to go, can someone find my mistake? Or maybe in this case you are getting a big bump by eliminating a player if you win.