nfl week 5 picks

[CCx]

It's square day!

NFL YTD: 13-10-1

Eagles -3 - Reasons the Eagles can lose/not cover in this game: Special teams is still below average. The defensive line injuries have forced two practice squad guys to be activated for the game. If McNabb suffers an injury or further aggravates his current ones that force him to leave the game. Turnovers.

Now that we have that out of the way.

The game's just a mismatch, plain and simple. Same theme as last season, too many offensive weapons. Dallas does have a good defense, and a good coach that has been around the block, so I'd expect to see some real different looks from the Eagles today. There is also nothing, NOTHING on the offensive side of the ball from Dallas that should worry one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Keyshawn and Terry Glenn are not a threat to the Eagles secondary. Julius Jones has not been effective up to this point for Dallas, and as long as Trotter's in the game at linebacker, I'm not concerned about the Eagles' run defense.

I may be a homer and for this game a BSP, so fade at will, but this is mismatch city.

Bills -2.5 - Kelly Holcombe > J.P. Losman - once the Bills actually complete a pass, that will allow McGahee to get going. That can't be a good thing - Miami is coming off a bye-week, on the road against a tough defense and division opponent... I think they go down early and stay down. Also leaning towards the over in this game as well.

Others:

Tampa/NYJ over 31.5
Bengals/Jags over 37

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Eagles -3 - Reasons the Eagles can lose/not cover in this game: Special teams is still below average. The defensive line injuries have forced two practice squad guys to be activated for the game. If McNabb suffers an injury or further aggravates his current ones that force him to leave the game. Turnovers.

Now that we have that out of the way.

The game's just a mismatch, plain and simple.

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Unfortunately for the usual square bettor (I'm on your other 3 picks), all those caveats you mentioned are important regardless of how much of a mismatch the game appears to be. Take the Indy game -- on paper it's so not close it's scary. Throw in special teams, a fired up home crowd, some untimely Indy TOs and you have a situation where Indy goes up by 24 late in the 3rd quarter, pulls the starters and watches the Niners score 2 meaningless TDs in the 4th. Granted Philly can't do that when they're up by 14 or 17 but you just can't underestimate the value of ST, TOs and a raucous home crowd in particular.

Granted also you're a homer so I know your confidence in the Birds, but the NFL just defies betting "logic" time and again.

Ed: I wasn't implying all those things could happen in the Indy game and the best SF could manage is a 24 pt deficit -- I meant that was the best case scenario for Indy if all those things happened. If Indy plays a flawless game (hard to do on the road) I could see them up by 35 through 3 qtrs w/o much reason to worry not covering 14.

[mosuavea]

CCx,

Im on the Bills today as well for much of the same reasons as you are. I think the Bills will see a 200+ yard passing game for a quarterback for the first time in quite awhile and Willis is just going to grind down that defense. Bills have a lot riding on this game because if they lose, after getting Holcommb in, people around here are going to flip as the move isnt a very favorable one to begin with. I like the Bills and the under.

As for the Philly pick, Im on Dallas, but good luck to you.

[CCx]

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but you just can't underestimate the value of ST, TOs and a raucous home crowd in particular.

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I don't think I am, probably why I listed these in my reasons why the Eagles could lose/not cover.

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Granted also you're a homer so I know your confidence in the Birds, but the NFL just defies betting "logic" time and again.

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Yup, it's a homer pick - if talent wins, I win - if intangibles win, I lose - I'll be arriving early at the bar, drinking my face off and screaming at the TV regardless of the outcome - always a winning situation in my book [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] This week just adds to the fun as there will undoubtedly be a decent number of cockroach inbred Philly-born Dallas fans there to scream at as well.

Good luck with your picks today, hope I didn't square it up too much for you.

My hungover picks

Titans/Texans ovr 41
Carr and Davis cant keep sucking forever, right?

Seahawks/Rams ovr 48
Self explanatory [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Dolphins +3
Riding the phins til they start losing again.

Homer pick Broncos -6.5
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Props
Plummer longest completion ovr 29 yds
Manning Td passes ovr 2.5 (-130)
Delhomme Tds+Ints ovr 2.5 (-160)

[CCx]

You love posting your picks in my threads, dont you.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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You love posting your picks in my threads, dont you.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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It's easier to just piggy back than start another thread no one would read [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[CCx]

You should at least accompany your picks with some sort of YTD record or something, make it at least interesting to track throughout the season.

You got it,

starting.....




now.

NFL YTD (0-0-0)


Adding Jags -3 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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I don't think I am, probably why I listed these in my reasons why the Eagles could lose/not cover.

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The only thing is it's hard to follow that up still with "it's a mismatch". If the game were at home, yes no question, but ST, TOs and home field are so much a part of the game that they're not simple caveats, that's all. What I've found interesting about this game is how the line's gone from -3.5 -105 to -3 -110/115. Pretty out of character line move imo.

Thanks for the good luck and try not blow out the eardrums of any of those Philly Cowboy fans.