Riddle me this...

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is there any sort of mental thing (slightly higher stakes) that is making you play a bit more passive in the 22s?

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Perhaps. Maybe when I first started, but I've dropped $100+ at the $11s before, so 1 or 2 sets of $22s that go 0 for 4 is about the same thing.

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I can't believe you waited till you won $4000 at the 10+1s before moving up.

WTF? You already have the bankroll for the 55s, and some would say you should be taking shots at the 109s.

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I didn't wait and all of a sudden just try 250+, I've been taking shots since August. And no, I don't think I'm going to jump to the $109s just cuz "i can". I think I'll try beating the weaker players first.

[pergesu]

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The one difference I notice between the two is that I'm rarely over 900 chips by level 4 at the $22s. This happens almost once a set (of 4) at the $11s if not twice. Because of this I'm forced into the push/fold mode sooner which is the reason for my unusally large 5-8th placement.

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What I think you meant to say was, "my problem seems to be that I'm panicking too early and raising garbage in EP and running into big hands a lot".

Edit: this is very common for people playing stakes that they are not psychologically comfortable to be playing at.

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fwiw I agree that this could entirely be the case, and I think you should review your play and see if it's true for you. I had this problem, was making disgustingly stupid pushes with weak aces in EP etc. Just remember that you're not really desperate for a push until you're like 3BB, though of course you should rarely pass up on a push with 5BB from the button or something.

Start messing with SNGPT and see what you need to push with when there's like 6 or 7 players left and you're in levels 4/5.

[golfcchs]

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My shot in the dark is that you ran a little good at the 11s and a little bad at the 22s.

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Which your 41% ITM at the 11's would seem to indecate.

If you dont want to here small sample size I would look at your heads up and ITM play. I bet you are over estimating your $EV 3 handed on pushes, and underestimating it heads up.

[pergesu]

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My shot in the dark is that you ran a little good at the 11s and a little bad at the 22s.

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Which your 41% ITM at the 11's would seem to indecate.

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Not really..there are plenty of winning players that manage 40% or better (I'm not one of them). Doesn't necessarily translate to a high ROI though.

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If you dont want to here small sample size I would look at your heads up and ITM play. I bet you are over estimating your $EV 3 handed on pushes, and underestimating it heads up.

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I like this assessment.

this is EXACTLY how mine looks (besides the n of tournaments)

currently im at 490 11s and 470 22s

490 11s : ITM 43 ROI 27
480 22s : ITM 35 ROI -2

no clue whats wrong, but what tends to happen is i see a lot more variance when i play the 22s. My days range from -250 to +250 (so around 12 buyins), while at the 11s my days range from -70 to +120 (-7 buyins to 12 buyins)
Also, i tend to streak these -250 days back to back, so what happens is i win 11s, move up to 22s, win for a bit then lose a ton, go back down to 11s, and then the cycle continues.

been doing this for almost 2 months of going up and down and still cant seem to beat the 22s ARG

[bones]

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But I'm just a little frustrated with the people on these forums saying that the $55s and lower are a total cakewalk and anyone with half-a-brain could beat them.


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Regardless of what you hear on these forums, a vast majority of poker players are losers, both at their current level and lifetime. It's natural to struggle at a level when you first move up. If it were easy, we'd all be destroying the step highers.

Study SNGPT, post hands, and keep thinking about poker. And I'd also recommend staying in the 22s. It appears that you've made some nice change playing the 11s and -4% ROI isn't a huge drain, so get some experience. It really is important.

dont know....i just jumped to the 55s and i tell ya, they are worse than the 33s..

[Hendricks433]

people always say this but isnt your sample size too small just like everyone says for everything else?

Based on your finish distribution, I think you might not be aggressive enough around the bubble/ITM. If you haven't yet, I recommend you pick up SNGPT and start messing around with it.

[GrekeHaus]

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Sample too small? I don't like hearing this response because it means that if I get a bigger one my ROI will magically shoot up. I don't want to keep throwing my money away.

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This seems like you're having a common misconception about the law of large numbers here. The money is gone and any results from here on out are going to be completely independent of it. You may go on a hot streak, or you may not. You could even go on another one of these losing streaks.

Another thing to note is that standard error is proportional to the square of the sample size. This is why everyone always says that your sample size is too small.

For instance, how many tournaments do you think it takes to know your true ROI +/- 10%? I'm not exactly sure, but it's not that small of a number. Now suppose you want to know your true ROI +/- 1%. It will take 100 times as many tournaments to do this as it took to know your ROI within 10% (since you are trying to be 10x more accurate).

I think any good player on here has run bad for 200+ tournaments before. You may or may not be throwing your money away, but if you feel uncomfortable, you should probably move down, get your comfidence back and then give it another shot.