folding on the river vs unknown

TStoneMBD · #1 09-29-2005, 01:09 AM

sb is unknown, bb is 50/10/.9 245 hands.

is the preflop raise ok or is this one of the times when calling makes sense since i cant take down the pot? raising allows me to chop up the sb's money with the bb a good percentage of the time and im inflating the pot in position. is there a reason why calling would be better here?

preflop is a common situation, but id really like to know how postflop looks.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)

Final Pot: 9 BB

einbert · #2 09-29-2005, 01:41 AM

Preflop seems fairly close, but I am going to say that folding is correct.

The SB is unknown, and unknowns in 15/30 defend their small blinds a lot from my experience. In addition you have no idea of his aggression pre or postflop, and thus no reliable way to estimate his range of hands. The SB also calls a lot in this situation at 15/30, which sucks for you since it lets BB come into the hand very often for profit (which he will do). Having the hand three-way makes it much harder to play your already very weak starting hand, and you're just about never taking down this pot without at least seeing a flop (and usually a turn). You have numbers on button but all your numbers tell about his blind defense is that his range is very wide, which doesn't help playing postflop against him a whole lot. If you had a postflop read on this guy I would like playing your hand a lot more than I do now.

Postflop is tough. You're easily getting the right price on the flop of course. How much chance is there exactly that you have the best hand on the turn? SB would have to be betting a worse 8 or a 7 (that he three-bet PF which would be strange) or some totally missed broadway hand into two people that just called a flop bet on an ace high board. And BB called his bet not closing the action (BB's lack of a raise indicates to me that it is not too likely he is on a draw, although it is of course possible). 5 cards in the deck will improve your hand, though. So maybe you are getting the pot and implied odds to try to improve. Two of those cards are diamonds, though. But with position and closing the action against these two players (and the only possible draw being obvious, and the chance of raising the field for an extra bet on the river when you connect) the river peel is probably better than folding.

TomBrooks · #3 09-29-2005, 03:59 AM

Riv: If either other player bet the river, I'd fold. If neither bet it, I'd check it through.

That being said, I'd have folded preflop, and I'd have folded on this turn as well.

Wynton · #4 09-29-2005, 09:08 AM

I would have folded pf and raised the flop. Don't know if that's best or not, but it's the best I got right now.

DMBFan23 · #5 09-29-2005, 09:14 AM

how close is the turn call in your opinion TStone?

TStoneMBD · #6 09-29-2005, 02:32 PM

its definitely close. when the action got to me it took me a little while to decide if i wanted to pursue or not, but i figure with 8:1 odds and the possibility that my hand is still best im better off calling. from a clear mathematical perspective the call appears to be -ev, so im not really sure if it was right or not. i dont know how often i am ahead on this turn but by calling i am depending on the opponents to check a weaker hand on the river.

tansoku · #7 09-29-2005, 02:57 PM

I would think showing down Q8os might convince SB to defend more. Just wondering if that affects the decision, or if it really doesn't matter...

cartman · #8 09-29-2005, 03:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
from a clear mathematical perspective the call appears to be -ev

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is only barely if at all -ev if you know that you are behind. Since there is some possibility you have the best hand I think a call is fine mathematically speaking. I would probably fold the river.

Cartman

bobbyi · #9 09-29-2005, 05:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would think showing down Q8os might convince SB to defend more. Just wondering if that affects the decision

[/ QUOTE ]
If the SB defends less often than is correct, this is a disadvantage of raising (since you will make him play better in the future). If he defends too often or the right amount, this is an advantage since you will make him play less correctly. In practice, this is probably too minor to be a real factor in your decision.