JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?

[Pog0]

Poker Network 1/2 10 handed

Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG+2 is loose passive with a pfr of 5%, af approx 0.6
MP1 is loose passive

PRE-FLOP
(2 folds), UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, (5 folds), UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

FLOP (3 players): 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10 SB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

TURN (3 players) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.5 BB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

RIVER (3 players) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9.5 BB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero ?

I know both of my opponents are passive, so if I get raised, it's an easy fold, in fact, most aces of theirs wil probably just call. Despite that, I'm still not convinced that there's value in a bet here. What's calling me that I beat? 99 and TT if the raiser raises that. Any 8 or 6 from the coldcaller. But shouldn't I expect to see Ax, KK, and QQ more often than makes a bet here profitable?

Does anyone's decision change if the action is the same on a Q or K river?

[Cumulonimbus]

Bet this river if it's an Ace, King or Queen. You will get called by some pretty miserable cards. If you get checkraised, then your decision is read-dependent. Not betting this river is a hole in your game.

definate value bet here, somebody MIGHT have an ace, but somebody is equally likely to call you with king high at party 1/2.
bet/fold

I think there is very little value in betting here. You have to be good around 35% of time, since you're risking 1BB to win 2BB, to warrant betting. I doubt this is the case.

I'm having trouble assigning both players calling hands, which we're beating. In my opinion, UTG alone is ahead a significant amount of the time when he calls. Here are my thoughts on his hand combos:

UTG possible holdings
Hands we're ahead of that call:
99 6 combos
TT 6 combos
Total: 12 combos

Hands we're behind that call/raise
AA 3 combos
AK 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AJs 2 combos
QQ 6 combos
KK 6 combos
Total: 41 combos

I also think TT and 99 can be discounted a bit, (as can AA, KK and QQ) as he'd likely bet/raise the flop with these holdings. Therefore, against UTG alone we are behind ~75% of the time. Throw in MP and I'm quite confident a bet here is -EV. I know of very few players that will call with K-high, etc. and thus did not take this into account.

EDIT: It's argueable that UTG may bet with a pair of As on the river, and thus the A pair combos should be discounted quite heavily. Though I believe it is highly probable he check/calls these hands given our passive read and the scary board.

[Cumulonimbus]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is very little value in betting here. You have to be good around 35% of time, since you're risking 1BB to win 2BB, to warrant betting. I doubt this is the case.

I'm having trouble assigning both players calling hands, which we're beating. In my opinion, UTG alone is ahead a significant amount of the time when he calls. Here are my thoughts on his hand combos:

UTG possible holdings
Hands we're ahead of that call:
99 6 combos
TT 6 combos
Total: 12 combos

Hands we're behind that call/raise
AA 3 combos
AK 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AJs 2 combos
QQ 6 combos
KK 6 combos
Total: 41 combos

I also think TT and 99 can be discounted a bit, (as can AA, KK and QQ) as he'd likely bet/raise the flop with these holdings. Therefore, against UTG alone we are behind ~75% of the time. Throw in MP and I'm quite confident a bet here is -EV. I know of very few players that will call with K-high, etc. and thus did not take this into account.

EDIT: It's argueable that UTG may bet with a pair of As on the river, and thus the A pair combos should be discounted quite heavily. Though I believe it is highly probable he check/calls these hands given our passive read and the scary board.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have much flawed logic my friend. I'm afraid you don't have much of an understanding of typical Party players. In your "Hands we're ahead of that call," you have to include almost any pair. This is a clear easy value bet, and it's not even close.

[hellite]

I check this particular river; two passives, bottom card paired, an A on board and a three flush combined with the fact that original raiser ONLY raises 5% of his hands preflop makes this an EASY check! What hand does original preflop raiser raise that does not beat JJ and does not have at least one Ace in the hole? 1010 MAYBE (a true prayer). The reason he didnt bet his ace on the river is because he probably is not that good and the board is really scary for a passive who just hit his hand but could still be beat. He won't bet it, but he will call. Rarely will this player fold the winning hand on the river with the pot this size. Easy check! other dud might have anything including an Ace, trips or flush. If either player or both have busted draws (highly unlikely) they will fold and there is no value in that!

[ QUOTE ]

You have much flawed logic my friend. I'm afraid you don't have much of an understanding of typical Party players. In your "Hands we're ahead of that call," you have to include almost any pair. This is a clear easy value bet, and it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it’s not even close, betting is clearly wrong here. When we assign our opponents hands based on basic hand reading skills it is blatantly obvious we are not ahead ~35% of the time.

"You have to include any pair" A loose/passive opponent is never raising 22-88 (even 99 is very questionable) pf from UTG. It seems like you're conveniently forgetting the preflop raise. I believe my possible holdings analysis is quite accurate, and you have given me no reason to believe otherwise.

In my opinion, this is a very clear check.

[callmedonnie]

I am mostly afraid of UTG+2 since he raised preflop. However, loose passive players make you money because they call your value bets often. While my first instinct is to check, I feel like a bet/fold line is appropriate here. What sucks is against passive players lots of times they call with a good Ace and I feel duped because their lack of aggression didn't tip me off at any point. But, they make you money and it is a frustration that comes with the game.

[SackUp]

bets. The A is likely just as scary to them as it is to you.

and a b/f line needs to be very read dependant as this is a perfect bluff card. You have to figure both of them are sticking around with any piece or waiting for a fourth club. You will fold the club draw but get paid off from the guy holding a pp or an 8 or 6.

[ QUOTE ]
The A is likely just as scary to them as it is to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a reason against value betting, as it makes it less likely that an opponent will call with a worse hand. This might be different if the opponent had been betting the whole way then checked on the A, but both opponents having been checking the whole time anyway. I agree with the rest of your logic, though.