What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

[jay1313]

I agree that as a whole the percentage of hands you win will be less then the 10% of your fair share. Just for grins I ran a query on the last 87K hands I have sat in on. It was a simple query, not taking into consideration when there was a flop or not, whether it was a split pot or not. All I based it on was when I got more then $0 returned to me at the end (there are pots you 'win' where you get less then you started with). It did not take into account the level I was playing at either, I am much better at $.5/$1 then I am at $2/$4. All in all it took into account 3 levels $.5/$1, $1/$2, and $2/$4 full ring.

After 87457 hands I have sat in on, I received positive money back 7880 times or 9.01%. Not very meaningful, but interesting.

[kiemo]

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if i have <8% i consider myself to be running bad.

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Wow!

I have been running bad then for 50k hands (5/1 and 1/2 full) as my winrate is 7.3% and that number is inflated by my winrate in BB (15%) as every other position is lower then my total (CO is highest at barely above 7.3).

I've been running at 6.25% but have still been a winning player. (VPIP ~14.5) If you want to pick a stat that may indicate when you're running good or bad, generally I'd choose W$WSF.

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I've been running at 6.25% but have still been a winning player. (VPIP ~14.5) If you want to pick a stat that may indicate when you're running good or bad, generally I'd choose W$WSF.

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I guess it's time I finally admit I don't know what VPIP and W$WSF mean. Anyone care to enlighten me?

[McGahee]

80% when I'm not on tilt. I would estimate this to be 4-6%.

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I guess it's time I finally admit I don't know what VPIP and W$WSF mean. Anyone care to enlighten me?

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They are both PokerTracker stats. VPIP is the percentage of times you "voluntary pus money into the pot" and W$WSF is the percentage of times you "win money when you see the flop."

[Buckmulligan]

There are a few general rules of thumb when evaluating this sort of thing.

W$WSF and general win%: These are drastically manipulated by your aggression. The more passive you are, the lower these are, so if you think you are running bad, you may just be calling too much.

Won$@sd%: Like the stats just mentioned, the %won@SD is also partly aggression dependant. However, low win%@sd can often result from overaggression, as you effectively manage to push out most hands except the ones that have you beat.

[Hellmouth]

Arn't typical numbers like VPIP 18% Won at showdown 55%? This would lead to 9.9% win rate? (just multiply .55 * .18) I guess that this doesn't include the hands that dont show down though.

It seems to me that although we don't play every hand we should expect to win more of them because we are starting out with an edge (better than average hand) and playing aggressively. So maybe the two of those (playing less hands but better ones + superior play) makes up for seeing many less hands. Thus we win 10% of pots and make our profit because they are bigger.

Greg