What percentage of hands do you expect to win??

This is a question I've been wondering about. You've got 10 people at a table. You each have an equal chance of winning any given hand, so should you expect to win about 10% of hands in the long run? The reason I ask is that in the past month I've won maybe 4 - 5%. The month before that it was about 10%. Does this confirm my fears that I've hit a downswing? What are your stats like? I'm wondering what value should be expected here.

[bottomset]

who cares its all about profit

and you will likely win less than your "fair share" since you should be tighter than the average player at your tables

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who cares its all about profit

and you will likely win less than your "fair share" since you should be tighter than the average player at your tables

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but arent you ideally more aggressive in those hands? allowing you to take pots away from others when you do enter the pot?

if i have <8% i consider myself to be running bad.

Hopefully you're only playing 1/5 - 1/4 of your hands. Your loose opponents are playing more hands. You are probably winning a higher percentage of the hands you play.

Basically:
You must think about it in terms of money not pots. Your loose opponents have a higher "turn over" of hands- so may win more pots, but also they loose as many" so their "success" is far more luck dependent. Their swings will be higher- just look at PT stats (if you have PT) for any game- keep checking net winnings for your opponents every 5 hands or so- you'll see them jumping about all over the place. Your's should be much less volatile.

Ian

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if i have <8% i consider myself to be running bad.

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Is this a good number to determine if you are in a downswing? What about "win when see flop" or "win at showdown?"

[kiemo]

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if i have <8% i consider myself to be running bad.

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Wow!

I have been running bad then for 50k hands (5/1 and 1/2 full) as my winrate is 7.3% and that number is inflated by my winrate in BB (15%) as every other position is lower then my total (CO is highest at barely above 7.3).

I've been running at 6.25% but have still been a winning player. (VPIP ~14.5) If you want to pick a stat that may indicate when you're running good or bad, generally I'd choose W$WSF.

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I've been running at 6.25% but have still been a winning player. (VPIP ~14.5) If you want to pick a stat that may indicate when you're running good or bad, generally I'd choose W$WSF.

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I guess it's time I finally admit I don't know what VPIP and W$WSF mean. Anyone care to enlighten me?

I don't think you are asking the right question. Other than BBs/100, the only other stat I find interesting is how many show-downs do I win? When this number is <50%, I usually find a leak in my current game (generally, I'm too loose in EP). When it is >50%, I am almost always +EV for the session. This is a really easy stat to see w/o poker tracker

[ajm36]

I expect to win all of them--never works out though, so I lead a life of utter disappointment.