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#31
11-04-2005, 10:51 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
you guys r a bunch of gamblers...seriously I'd go maybe 3 hands, 4 max if I felt really lucky. I don't think I've ever won with Aces more than 3 times in a row... Don't you know how often Aces get cracked? You really think there gonna win 8 times in a row...lol [/ QUOTE ] Yes. This is not a question of tolerance. You should stop playing when it's a -EV game. We all understand that. Here's how you should look at it: 1 hand : 85% 2 hands: 72% 3 hands: 61% 4 hands: 52% 5 hands: 44% so you should stop after 4 hands. 
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#32
11-04-2005, 10:58 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
Yes. This is not a question of tolerance. You should stop playing when it's a -EV game. We all understand that. Here's how you should look at it: 1 hand : 85% 2 hands: 72% 3 hands: 61% 4 hands: 52% 5 hands: 44% so you should stop after 4 hands. [/ QUOTE ] So, after 5 hands you have a 44% chance to build your $500 into $16000. That's -EV in your opinion?
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#33
11-05-2005, 12:26 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you guys r a bunch of gamblers...seriously I'd go maybe 3 hands, 4 max if I felt really lucky. I don't think I've ever won with Aces more than 3 times in a row... Don't you know how often Aces get cracked? You really think there gonna win 8 times in a row...lol [/ QUOTE ] Yes. This is not a question of tolerance. You should stop playing when it's a -EV game. We all understand that. Here's how you should look at it: 1 hand : 85% 2 hands: 72% 3 hands: 61% 4 hands: 52% 5 hands: 44% so you should stop after 4 hands. [/ QUOTE ] consider switching to slots
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#34
11-05-2005, 02:42 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you guys r a bunch of gamblers...seriously I'd go maybe 3 hands, 4 max if I felt really lucky. I don't think I've ever won with Aces more than 3 times in a row... Don't you know how often Aces get cracked? You really think there gonna win 8 times in a row...lol [/ QUOTE ] Yes. This is not a question of tolerance. You should stop playing when it's a -EV game. We all understand that. Here's how you should look at it: 1 hand : 85% 2 hands: 72% 3 hands: 61% 4 hands: 52% 5 hands: 44% so you should stop after 4 hands. [/ QUOTE ] You have a 27.8% chance of winning the whole thing, $125k after 8 hands. You're putting up $500 to do so. So you're getting 250:1 on your money and you will win a little bit better than 1/4 of the time. Definitely +EV. Ok, I can see the argument that in a 1 time shot after the 4th hand you're risking $8000 to double up with only a 44% chance to do so, but considering you only put up $500 of your money to begin with, the odds say you should gamble.
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#35
11-05-2005, 04:03 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you guys r a bunch of gamblers...seriously I'd go maybe 3 hands, 4 max if I felt really lucky. I don't think I've ever won with Aces more than 3 times in a row... Don't you know how often Aces get cracked? You really think there gonna win 8 times in a row...lol [/ QUOTE ] Yes. This is not a question of tolerance. You should stop playing when it's a -EV game. We all understand that. Here's how you should look at it: 1 hand : 85% 2 hands: 72% 3 hands: 61% 4 hands: 52% 5 hands: 44% so you should stop after 4 hands. [/ QUOTE ] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_Fallacy
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#36
11-05-2005, 04:08 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I can see the argument that in a 1 time shot after the 4th hand you're risking $8000 to double up with only a 44% chance to do so, but considering you only put up $500 of your money to begin with, the odds say you should gamble. [/ QUOTE ] You do not have a 44% chance of doubling up. You have an 80%ish chance of doubling up. That 44% figure includes the times you bust out in one of the first three trials, but if you even got this far then you didn't bust out during those trials. The 44% figure only applies if you haven't actually started playing yet. Think of it this way...the chances of you being dealt AA is 220-to-1. So what are the chances of having AA if you already know one of your cards is an A? According to the voodoo mathematics above, it would still be 220-to-1, which is clearly incorrect.
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#37
11-05-2005, 01:41 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
You're right, I miscalculated that.
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#38
11-06-2005, 06:31 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
Ok I had to try this out just for fun.. out came the trusty deck of cards.. I decided to go for two black aces as they are far cooler [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
Hand 1 A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Board 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 $1000 please Hand 2 A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Board 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]k [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] $2000 Please Hand 3 A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Board T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Damm it! Good Bye easy money!! This game is rigged [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] EDIT: P.S, I've tried this a few times now (too much time on my hands) My best score is $32000, anyone beat that???
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#39
11-06-2005, 07:20 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
P.S, I've tried this a few times now (too much time on my hands) My best score is $32000, anyone beat that??? [/ QUOTE ] The first eight hands I dealt out, the Aces won. (2 sets and a nut flush, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] ) ..going to keep going to see how far I can get. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] -Aces full rivered against K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s flush on hand 11, still going. Lost on Hand #14 with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Board: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] So, I ran my $500 into $4,096,000 ... hope Danny didn't buy in for $10M+ [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#40
11-07-2005, 03:36 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
I think what you are asking is how much risk tolerance do people have. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it's just a complicated way to ask about risk aversion (how not all dollars are created equal and utility is not identical to cash value).
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