Folding nutflush on river, -ev??

[jjacky]

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Flop: (8.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.


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I think you can safely rule out the Q here. The flat call says "drawing hand" to me. Thinking about it more, I think 66 is a possibility. A flat call gives you a chance to catch a spade.

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Turn: (5.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls.


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Unless UTG is suicidal (or has 66), you're way ahead here. Also, this tells me - again - he doesn't have a Q.

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River: (13.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.


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Hmm. A hard one. Either you're way ahead, or totally destroyed. Like I said before, I'm betting against the Q. 14:1 pot odds make it a tough lay-down.

I call. I'm thinking he has a lower flush, but if I'm beat I want to see that 66!

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i don't think you can rule out a queen given the flop action. if he has a queen he might slow play it. he can't get a flush draw to fold anyway.

the turn action looks like a boat, but might be a lower flush imo.

i agree with you that hero is way ahead or totally destroyed on the river since a split is impossible here [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

but seriously: i agree that hero gets proper odds to call.

[baronzeus]

He'll have quad Q here more often than a lower flush.

[ihardlyknowher]

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So no, I do not think Hero is automatically behind when he first faces this checkraise.

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I have agreed with this all along.

[aK13]

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More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.

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Most overused concept ever.

[jason_t]

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More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.

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Most overused concept ever.

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Ironic.

[SippinSoma]

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More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.

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Most overused concept ever.

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Ironic.

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Owned.

[DCIAce]

I think it's an easy call. I think you win this hand at least 10% of the time against J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or something similar.

[DocMartin]

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Ironic

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That was funny. I dont have the balls to fold here either.