3 Card Poker

[Stork]

You ante, if you like your hand you play. If you fold, you lose your ante. If you win, you're payed 1 to 1 on both the ante and the play bet. If dealer doesn't qualify (with Queen high or better), ante is payed 1 to 1 and the play bet is a push.

If all this is correct, can someone explain to me why the house has a 3.4% edge?

If you calculate the average winning hand, and only play when you have it beat, shouldn't that give the player a huge edge? Not to mention the bonus payouts on the ante for having a good hand.

I realize that sometimes you'll be folding a winner, but is that strong enough to tip the scales in the house's favor?
*And yes, I'm intentionally ignoring the Pair Plus option.

[magiluke]

I'm fairly certain that the payouts don't match the odds exactly. Take craps, which I am much more familiar with, for instance. The chance to roll a twelve is 1/36. The payout, however, is 30 to 1. That's a big difference, and where the house gets it's edge. I'd imagine that the situation is very similar in three card (although I don't exactly feel like looking that up right now).

[daryn]

www.wizardofodds.com

[Stork]

thanks.

[MicroBob]

Obviously you will be folding a number of antes in this game (when you have less than Q-high typically).

The times you do play (when you have a decent hand) there's a good chance you will only get paid on the ante.

So in this game, if both you AND the dealer have bad hands....you will lose because you fold before you know the dealer has garbage.


It's similar to BJ in this regard. It looks like an even-money game initially. Because it just matters whether you are higher than the dealer or vice-versa....but if it's a situation where you and the dealer both bust it is NOT a push....you actually lose because you busted first.


In this regard BJ and 3-card poker are both games where POSITION MATTERS. The dealer gets to act last and thus has an advantage.


FWIW - I worked as a dealer at a casino for 8 months and more than half of my shifts were spent dealing 3-card poker.

I saw in a Conjelco or Gambler's Book Store catalog that there is a pamphlet on 'advantage 3-card poker' or something like that. I suspect it takes into account how to play if you see any other cards.

Players aren't supposed to show each other their hands....but you can usually get away with it at most casinos if you aren't terribly obvious about it.
It's usually just conversational gambler-nonsense 'Crap...I needed another heart' type of stuff. But if you know your stuff I suspect you could use it to your advantage.

Example:
If you're at a table where 4 other players fold then you can be pretty sure that NONE of them had a K or A....and likely didn't have a Q either (most players will stay with mot Q-high's). Thus, the odds that the dealer has a high-card is significantly increased and you should likely fold your Q-high and maybe even your weak K-high.
I don't know the math, just giving a possible example.


It would likely go the other way too....if the players to your left and right both have AKQ straights then I suspect it might be +EV to stay with ANYTHING because the chances that the dealer will have an opening hand have gone down dramatically.


The more I think about it...the more I want to get that 3-card poker pamphlet from Gambler's Book Store or Conjelco or wherever. I don't know if the effects of removal of high and low cards is significant enough to beat the game regularly....but it should certainly be able to help you lower the house advantage significantly if you really know your stuff.