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#11
11-01-2005, 09:38 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what % of hands do you think villain calls with here? even if he calls with top 40%, Im still +.7ev... [/ QUOTE ] I think he calls with top 25% at most. Probably less than that. [/ QUOTE ] He'll be getting better than 2-1 on a call against a relatively desperate SB. I'd call with more than 25%, though I'm not sure I'm calling with more than 40% (even though I probably should be). Any pair, any ace, any king, most queens, and a lot of connected/suited stuff. 
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#12
11-01-2005, 09:40 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
I don't think you should be, actually, maybe by pot odds (i.e. chipEV) but not by ICM (i.e. $EV). I suspect him calling more than 40% would be wrong even if he put you on any two. Not sure though, not done the maths, just going on intuition there.
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#13
11-01-2005, 09:45 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
I just think that pushing garbage into the biggest stack on the table with barely more than 3x is probably -EV, on instinct.
ICM says it starts to become -EV at around top 55%. If you're the big stack, are you folding Q2? I think I call with it if I know the SB has a wide push range, just because hero's stack is too small.
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#14
11-01-2005, 09:51 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
[ QUOTE ]
I just think that pushing garbage into the biggest stack on the table with barely more than 3x is probably -EV, on instinct. ICM says it starts to become -EV at around top 55%. If you're the big stack, are you folding Q2? I think I call with it if I know the SB has a wide push range, just because hero's stack is too small. [/ QUOTE ] As villain, I'm folding Q2 in a millisecond. I don't know that hero knows to push any two.
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#15
11-01-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I just think that pushing garbage into the biggest stack on the table with barely more than 3x is probably -EV, on instinct. ICM says it starts to become -EV at around top 55%. If you're the big stack, are you folding Q2? I think I call with it if I know the SB has a wide push range, just because hero's stack is too small. [/ QUOTE ] As villain, I'm folding Q2 in a millisecond. I don't know that hero knows to push any two. [/ QUOTE ] Q2o is a +0.5% call if the BB thinks that the SB is pushing (22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J3o+,J2s+,T6o+,T3s+,97o+,95s+,86s +,76s)
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#16
11-01-2005, 10:03 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I just think that pushing garbage into the biggest stack on the table with barely more than 3x is probably -EV, on instinct. ICM says it starts to become -EV at around top 55%. If you're the big stack, are you folding Q2? I think I call with it if I know the SB has a wide push range, just because hero's stack is too small. [/ QUOTE ] As villain, I'm folding Q2 in a millisecond. I don't know that hero knows to push any two. [/ QUOTE ] Against a good player, Q2o is a pretty easy call in my book. So in a high buyin tournament, I would call with Q2 almost every time...in a lower one, your opponents don't push so often, so folding becomes more reasonable.
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#17
11-01-2005, 10:07 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
[ QUOTE ]
Against a good player, Q2o is a pretty easy call in my book. So in a high buyin tournament, I would call with Q2 almost every time...in a lower one, your opponents don't push so often, so folding becomes more reasonable. [/ QUOTE ] This is a 27, of course, so we agree in this case. Anyway, the point remains that I have to have a specific read to call here with Q2o. There are plenty of clueless players at high buyins.
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#18
11-01-2005, 10:10 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I just think that pushing garbage into the biggest stack on the table with barely more than 3x is probably -EV, on instinct. ICM says it starts to become -EV at around top 55%. If you're the big stack, are you folding Q2? I think I call with it if I know the SB has a wide push range, just because hero's stack is too small. [/ QUOTE ] As villain, I'm folding Q2 in a millisecond. I don't know that hero knows to push any two. [/ QUOTE ] Q2o is a +0.5% call if the BB thinks that the SB is pushing (22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J3o+,J2s+,T6o+,T3s+,97o+,95s+,86s +,76s) [/ QUOTE ] Well, now we're into the infinite loop "if he knows that I know that I should push any two, then I'll wait for a premium hand and double up" etc., etc. Regardless, at the 27s, I'm pushing. Darn it.
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#19
11-01-2005, 10:13 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
[ QUOTE ]
Q2o is a +0.5% call if the BB thinks that the SB is pushing (22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J3o+,J2s+,T6o+,T3s+,97o+,95s+,86s +,76s) [/ QUOTE ] Yea but why bother. Ok its nice to get your .5% EV yea baby they all add up, but I like my stack and and dont know that heros range is T6o etc. I fold coz I want my stack to be as big as possible when I push it in dreckly. I know there is a load of +EV opps to come so am not to bothered about declining a call with Q2.
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#20
11-01-2005, 10:32 PM
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Re: At Durron\'s suggestion...27s
[ QUOTE ]
I just think that pushing garbage into the biggest stack on the table with barely more than 3x is probably -EV, on instinct. ICM says it starts to become -EV at around top 55%. If you're the big stack, are you folding Q2? I think I call with it if I know the SB has a wide push range, just because hero's stack is too small. [/ QUOTE ] I know this guy wasnt a loose caller...plus I have a 2+2er to my right so I dont know how many opportunities I am going to get...Ill give ya a "its close" in other situations, but I had only shown good(ish) hands up til then and hadnt revealed my true nature yet.
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