I'm all confused all of a sudden

ilya · #1 05-17-2005, 01:46 AM

So I did some calculations to see what win% would be necessary for a push from CO to be profitable given

1, equal stacks of 5xBB
2, varying probalities of getting called in one of the three spots behind you(30%, 40%, 50%).

The win% required drops dramatically as the number of players increases. What confuses me, however, is how high the necesary win% is if there are only 4 players left. For example, if you figure to get called a total of only 30% of the time (each opponent calls with 66+, AT+, KQ), your win% against your opponents' range must be at least 38%! So, pushing a hand like QTo is drastically wrong from an ICM perspective...yet it feels necessary to push it. Is the ICM *that* warped near the bubble?! Or has my intuition drifted *that* far off course?

curtains · #2 05-17-2005, 01:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So I did some calculations to see what win% would be necessary for a push from CO to be profitable given

1, equal stacks of 5xBB
2, varying probalities of getting called in one of the three spots behind you(30%, 40%, 50%).

The win% required drops dramatically as the number of players increases. What confuses me, however, is how high the necesary win% is if there are only 4 players left. For example, if you figure to get called a total of only 30% of the time (each opponent calls with 66+, AT+, KQ), your win% against your opponents' range must be at least 38%! So, pushing a hand like QTo is drastically wrong from an ICM perspective...yet it feels necessary to push it. Is the ICM *that* warped near the bubble?! Or has my intuition drifted *that* far off course?

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That calling range is really as high as 30% with 3 players to act??

dfscott · #3 05-17-2005, 01:58 AM

If I understand you correctly, I've noticed something similar as well when checking my tourneys in eastbay's calculator. The CO position on the bubble is extremely unfavorable, and hands that are easy button pushes are often very negative EV in the CO.

I've always attributed this to the fact that FE is such a large part of your win% at this point, and every additional potential caller takes a big chunk out of that. I even did some ballpark calculations on when pushing any two is correct the majority of the time (note: these are very rough , are based on a PP structure, assume an "average" calling range regardless of stack size, and do not take relative stack size of the potential callers into account).

Caveated per above, I discovered that with 9BB, a SB push with any two is normally +EV. With 6BB, you can do it on the button. But you need to have less than 3BB to do it from the CO, and of course by then, your FE is fairly weak, so the model breaks down. So, it is rare that pushing any two from the CO is ever correct, which may be why you run that drop-off.

However, this is all idle speculation and I have nothing to back it up, so I'd be interested to hear the statisticians opinions...

ilya · #4 05-17-2005, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I did some calculations to see what win% would be necessary for a push from CO to be profitable given

1, equal stacks of 5xBB
2, varying probalities of getting called in one of the three spots behind you(30%, 40%, 50%).

The win% required drops dramatically as the number of players increases. What confuses me, however, is how high the necesary win% is if there are only 4 players left. For example, if you figure to get called a total of only 30% of the time (each opponent calls with 66+, AT+, KQ), your win% against your opponents' range must be at least 38%! So, pushing a hand like QTo is drastically wrong from an ICM perspective...yet it feels necessary to push it. Is the ICM *that* warped near the bubble?! Or has my intuition drifted *that* far off course?

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That calling range is really as high as 30% with 3 players to act??

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Well, no. It's 28.5% for that range.

ilya · #5 05-17-2005, 02:03 AM

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I've always attributed this to the fact that FE is such a large part of your win% at this point

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Actually it seems to be more of a function of the value of having any chips at all so close to the money. When it's 10-handed with everyone at 5xBB, and the same calling ranges for your 3 remaining opponents, your win% needs to be only 20% (!!) for pushing to be ICM-correct. Even if there are only 6 players, the necessary win% is still only a modest 26%.

Scuba Chuck · #6 05-17-2005, 03:38 AM

Two factors that make your numbers ...well off.

One is the fact that with equal stacks, there is not likely to be callers of top 28.5%. Second, pushing from UTG is not going to be as attractive as button, and then SB is even more attractive.

ilya · #7 05-17-2005, 03:44 AM

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Two factors that make your numbers ...well off.

One is the fact that with equal stacks, there is not likely to be callers of top 28.5%. Second, pushing from UTG is not going to be as attractive as button, and then SB is even more attractive.

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Of course I don't think any one opponent is likely to call with as wide a range as top 28.5%. The figure is cumulative. That is, if each of your three opponents will call with 66+, AT+, and KQ (about 10% of hands), then if you push in the CO, you will be called about 28.5% of the time.

I don't quite understand your 2nd point. Do you mean people will be more leery of calling an UTG push since it represents more strength?

Scuba Chuck · #8 05-17-2005, 03:51 AM

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I don't quite understand your 2nd point. Do you mean people will be more leery of calling an UTG push since it represents more strength?

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You understand my second point. It's more attractive (in fact correct) to push a VERY wide range of hands from SB if folded to you on the bubble. The range of hands narrows as you move from the SB to UTG.

Blarg · #9 05-17-2005, 03:59 AM

Jeez this seems so foreign from the world of the 11's, where people will call with any face card, 98 suited, and the like.

ilya · #10 05-17-2005, 04:10 AM

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I don't quite understand your 2nd point. Do you mean people will be more leery of calling an UTG push since it represents more strength?

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You understand my second point. It's more attractive (in fact correct) to push a VERY wide range of hands from SB if folded to you on the bubble. The range of hands narrows as you move from the SB to UTG.

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Oh yeah, of course. I was just saying that I was surprised to see just how tight you have to be in the CO on the bubble, especially considering how loosely you should push in the same position when it's 6-handed+. I think I'd started being too LAGgy on the bubble-CO.