Schoonmaker "Don't Quit Your Day Job" (yeah, it's long)

[QTip]

In his book "The Psychology of Poker", he has an appendix B entitled "Don't Quit Your Day Job". In there, he lists several reasons why he thinks going pro is a big mistake for most people. I would like to list these and then give why I think those don't apply to me, and then you fine posters can tell me if I'm missing it or what.

1. You probably won't make it.

"Unless your are an excellent player with a big bankroll and extreme discipline, you haven't got a chance" He goes on to add that most big names have other jobs to supplement their income. If they have to do that, why makes you think you can make it full-time?

My answer: I don't think he's considering the drastic impact of being able to play 8+ tables online and also get rakeback for all those tables. The rakeback alone for that many tables 40hrs/day is more than the average income in America.

2. There's little money and no future.

He talks about how many professions make much more than the big names, and many pros have had to go on to get "regular jobs".

My answer: This book was written in 2000, so I think poker was really starting to spread it's wings in society. Again, I'm not sure he's taking online into consideration, but the future of online poker or rakeback, I think, is something to seriously consider. I'm not sure I have an answer that I'm happy with for either topic, but it's hard to imagine things changing in the very near future.

3. It's extremely unhealthy.

He talks about a large amount of hours sitting in uncomfortable chairs, smokey rooms, no exercise and a diet of unhealthy food.

My answer: Again, I think he's talking about people playing live. I'm playing at home, in a big leather chair, no smoke, any healthy food I want, and the opportunity to take plenty of breaks for exercise. Exercise will be a part of my regular, daily routine. There's a YMCA down the road from my place, and my plan is to get a membership and bet there at least 3 times/week, which is more exercise then I get now in my cubicle all day.

4. It's a dreary life.

He talks about long hours at the table, rejected by society, eating at the table, stress of unpredictable income, etc.

My answer: Again, I think all of these relate to someone just playing live. I think I answered all these in the other point he made.

5. It's a great "second job".

I won't argue with that. My why have 2 and work 60 hours/week, when I can just have 1 and not have a strict work schedule, report to someone else, have stress and deadlines at my current job doing something I really don't like that much anyway.

Why I want to go pro:

1. I like poker - a lot.

2. I'm completely convinced that I can easily make twice what I make at my current job.

3. Work for me has never offered any fulfillment through "contributing to something" or anything like that. I've only ever had a job for 1 reason - pay bills.

4. I think my life will actually have more balance when I'm working on my own. I'm extremely disciplined, and I'm able to make a schedule now that fits things I want to do, like exercise and so forth.

5. If something did go wrong, I have a degree, speak several languages, etc. that stack my resume. I don't think I'll have a tough time getting another good paying job if I don't want to play pro anymore or if something goes wrong.

Does all this make sense?

[PokerBob]

IMO if anyone has thought things through and would never make such a move in haste, it is you. I have no reservations about you doing it.

[flair1239]

My advice would be to save this post and look at it again after a downswing (not a bad day, but a downswing), then see if you still feel the same way.

If you can do that you will probably be just fine.

As a side note I would not even consider it, until my daughter is in her final years of college (which will be about 20 years for me). If I did not have a child it would be tempting to give it a go, but as it is I am not that confident in my abilities, where I am willing to mess with her future.

[crunchy1]

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2. I'm completely convinced that I can easily make twice what I make at my current job.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm convinced that I could make twice as much money being an independant consultant rather than programming for a company. However, that 2nd (extra) half of that income is going to the taxes, insurance and benefits that are no longer being paid for by my company. Have you taken the extra expenses of being independant into account? I'm guessing you have because I gather that you're pretty thorough - I'm interested in seeing some numbers.

[GetThere1Time]

I support your choice 100%. It sounds like you really thought everything through. I think the real key is discipline and a back up plan. Sounds like you have both. Best of luck to you.

[Biloxi]

In turning pro, would you only play online at moderate levels or travel to tourneys and big games?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2. I'm completely convinced that I can easily make twice what I make at my current job.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm convinced that I could make twice as much money being an independant consultant rather than programming for a company. However, that 2nd (extra) half of that income is going to the taxes, insurance and benefits that are no longer being paid for by my company. Have you taken the extra expenses of being independant into account? I'm guessing you have because I gather that you're pretty thorough - I'm interested in seeing some numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm working on putting a presentation together right now.

Let me show you what I have so far (it might benefit someone else as well as having others scrutinize what I have as well)

I make salary of $45/year. I feel there are really 3 major topics to consider on top of salary. Vacation time isn’t really a factor because I get 2 weeks, and I’ve already figured that into my poker income. Check here for the spreadsheet. That was based on 50 weeks, so I feel that vacation is already covered.

Benefits:

My medical and life insurance plan is pretty good, and I pay about $380/month. To get this same plan, I will be paying about $1,000/month. This is $620 more than what I pay now. $620 * 12 is about $7,500 more a year that I need to plan on paying.

Taxes:

I pay about 17% on taxes now. For example, last year I paid about $8,000 in taxes. I’m expecting that % to almost double, but I’m not real sure. The other benefits here is that I can take 25% of my taxes and put it into a retirement fund when I’m self-employed.

Taxes are taxes, and you’re going to pay them either way, so I don’t see how it’s a huge factor. However, I’m trying to learn more on this topic.

401K:

One really nice benefit I do have at work is a great 401K plan. They match 100% up to 6% of my contributions. I can contribute up to 15%, and it’s 100% vested. This is a great plan, but I had to withdraw my contributions after January 1st, because without my wife working, I can’t pay the bills. I just don’t have the money to be contributing now, and that fact has really been pissing me off.

However, here’s my thoughts on this. With the extra money I’ll be making with a greater income, I’m planning on putting it on my house. I think I can pay my house off in less than half the time that I’m on schedule to pay it off now. This is worth in the neighborhood of $200,000 saved in interest. I wouldn’t make that much in 15 years of 401K. I know that. Also, paying off this place is almost like a retirement plan all in itself. We have a 2580 sq. ft. house on 35 acres in an area that’s really starting to boom. It will be worth a ton in 15 or 20 years.

So, taxes are taxes, and I don’t think that’s really a HUGE issue.

Medical benefits are nice, but we’re talking about only needing to make around $8K more / year to cover the difference of having my own plan.

401K is nice, but I’ll also be able to have another retirement fund from contributing tax funds there every year and also paying large chunks on the house.

That’s where I’m at so far.

[DMBFan23]

you going through a downswing? if so, I hope you pull out of it soon. best of luck, it looks like you've thought this out pretty thoroughly. the important thing is that you don't feel like you wasted any time. whatever road that puts you on.

[QTip]

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In turning pro, would you only play online at moderate levels or travel to tourneys and big games?

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The plan is to 8 table for 40 hrs or more/week.

I'm not planning on traveling anywhere or playing any tournament. Now and then I might make the 2 1/2 hour drive to the closest casino for some live play fun, but that's about it.

[Octopus]

At what level are you planning to play? Last I heard you were on the 2/4 side of bouncing between 2/4 and 3/6. If 2/4, I think you should bite the bullet and commit to moving up before you go full time. Even at 3/6, I'd worry that moving up before going full time might be the better move long term.