(109) Bubble Fun with Raptor

[tigerite]

That one's a lot harder than this one. I've also been away most of the weekend and week until now, so I hadn't had chance to look at it. But I think it's a marginal fold, I'd like more time to decide though. This one is a much more clear-cut fold, at least for me.

[Gramps]

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Seat 2: Cuban ( $4570 )
Seat 4: iPLaY2PLaCe ( $3205 )
Seat 5: Raptor_517 ( $1280 )
Seat 8: bnaz2004 ( $945 )

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This is why it pays to pay attention to your opponents (even when 8 or 10 tabling).

The more "pushbot" the pusher is, and the more I think I've played with him before (and the more likely I am to play with him in the future), the more likely I am to call.

How did the BB get down to 945? If he's been a folding puss, he ain't calling with any two (and any decent player isn't calling with any two here - he knows you're short as well, and if he wins just one showdown, he takes the lead on you, so he'll do it where he thinks he has a decent shot at winning). If this gets into a "fold off," kiss your chances at 2nd and 1st pretty much goodbye. If you call and win, you have a 2860 to 1925 edge on 2nd place (he has position on you, but you should be right in the thick of it most of the time after the bubble).

There's just so many 2+2 types in the 109s and 215s who would push just about any two here (and keep pushing into the two short stacks), that (a) you're probably like 63%-64% at worst; and (b) so long as you and other shorty are around, you're going to continually be pushed into, often turning it into a "fold off" where 2nd/1st go out the window even if (much of the time) you win a showdown and get a few chips back (because the other two stacks will have a huge edge on you and shorty, and continue to abuse your blinds).

But maybe I've just been on a 15,000+ SNG heater...actually, in most cases, I don't think it's wrong either way (calling or folding). My default is always to play strong hands, so if I wasn't sure, I would call (which means I'd call unless the button was tight/had folded other times in spots like these, or the BB was a known "give up caller" in a spot like this (I have notes on a few players who do do this with semi-regularity)).

P.S. If you're calling any two in your BB here, you've found a leak.

[raptor517]

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P.S. If you're calling any two in your BB here, you've found a leak.

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

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P.S. If you're calling any two in your BB here, you've found a leak.

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

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I made my stand w/ 32o last night in the bubble. I figured I was against 2 overs making it 2:1 against my hand but I was getting 3:2 from Pot... pretty close to even... I flopped 2 pair (pairing either would have been enough to win against his AJo)... boy was he pissed, but I was a wounded animal needing to make a stand w/ pretty good odds. Finished 2nd!

[Gramps]

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

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Ugh, calling with 32o here is absolutely, 100% HORRIBLE. Chip EV, schmip EV, $EV-wise it's not close. Even if button hasn't looked at his cards, you're 33% here, more likely you're 30% to win the hand. If you (as the BB) fold, you're not as far behind the other short stack as you might think, as he's in the BB before you. You have enough chips where you can likely avoid a 3-way all-in if you do get a hand you like in the next couple, you have a shot at pushing on the short stack's BB if you like your UTG hand, and can always wait til your next BB to make a stand (are are going to better way better off %-wise to win on average than making a stand here (and winning, while giving you fewer chips than if you make a stand here, should give you some FE)).

Of the ~ 30% of the time you win, you still get 4th a % of the time. So...by calling with your 32o, you finsih 4th over 75% of the time. Your 1sts and 2nds do go up a bit, but not by that much, as you're still only in about a tie for 2nd, and you have shat for relative position on the (continuing) bubble (meaning the times you do suck out with your 32o, you'll often proceed to get chipped back down to shat).

Something like T8s or K4o against an aggressive-pushbot button, that's a completely different story (if you're like 45% to win or so). 32o or total shat hand, calling in the BB here is awful, and a major leak if you're doing it.

IMO/IME, of course.

[Exitonly]

Read the situation wrong. I'm an idiot.

[Michael C.]

Uhm, how is 23o a 4-1 dog against a random hand? I think you need to change the batteries in your calculator. ) [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Degen]

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Essentially folding here gives you an expected value of about $10-33 every time

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...according to ICM. Blind faith in what it tells you is an error IMHO. I don't have the sceitific evidence to prove that it does not work, but my intuition (from situations such as the OP) tells me that it has a solid chance of being wrong in places. I'm not saying its useless, just as prophecy is not useless...I just think it may not be the crystal ball that many people make it out to be.

I've been told things like this more times than I can count on this board, by 'respected' posters the majority of the time...and long term results have yet to prove me wrong in many an instance...such as this.

While others go bust and broke and complain of 'running cool' for long stretches and whine about bad beats (all while pledging allegiance to ICM and SNGPT and all things deemed SNG holy)...I continue to make a living.

[raptor517]

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

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Ugh, calling with 32o here is absolutely, 100% HORRIBLE. Chip EV, schmip EV, $EV-wise it's not close. Even if button hasn't looked at his cards, you're 33% here, more likely you're 30% to win the hand. If you (as the BB) fold, you're not as far behind the other short stack as you might think, as he's in the BB before you. You have enough chips where you can likely avoid a 3-way all-in if you do get a hand you like in the next couple, you have a shot at pushing on the short stack's BB if you like your UTG hand, and can always wait til your next BB to make a stand (are are going to better way better off %-wise to win on average than making a stand here (and winning, while giving you fewer chips than if you make a stand here, should give you some FE)).

Of the ~ 30% of the time you win, you still get 4th a % of the time. So...by calling with your 32o, you finsih 4th over 75% of the time. Your 1sts and 2nds do go up a bit, but not by that much, as you're still only in about a tie for 2nd, and you have shat for relative position on the (continuing) bubble (meaning the times you do suck out with your 32o, you'll often proceed to get chipped back down to shat).

Something like T8s or K4o against an aggressive-pushbot button, that's a completely different story (if you're like 45% to win or so). 32o or total shat hand, calling in the BB here is awful, and a major leak if you're doing it.

IMO/IME, of course.

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gramps dont get me wrong i fold 23o here, lol. however, for the standard crap player is not a terribly -ev play to call any 2 here. and again let me restate, i dont condone calling with 23o here, im just saying how the math of it doesnt work out as horrible as it would appear.. holla

[Gramps]

No fair getting me worked up in my old age, then not playing along...