Tricky spot with KK...??

[Vavavoom]

**BACKGROUND**

Been at table for 40 mins or so......Been outdrawn 4 or 5 hands with 2 pair or sets to rivered straights and flushes...I am probably down $100 or so but am showing legitimate hands at showdown....

Villain = 18/5 over ~70+ hands...


GAME HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2005/12/14
Table 'Blarney' Seat #7 is the button


Seat 1: HERO(UTG) ($167.85 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG+1 ($183.95 in chips)
Seat 3: MP1 ($203.35 in chips)
Seat 5: MP2 ($198 in chips)
Seat 6: MP3 ($281.05 in chips)
Seat 7: LP ($147.40 in chips)
Seat 8: SB ($159.45 in chips)
Seat 9: BB ($200 in chips)

SB: posts small blind $1
BB: posts big blind $2
SEAT 4: sits out

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to HERO [K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
HERO: raises $6 to $8
UTG+1: calls $8
MP1: folds
MP2: folds
MP3: folds
LP: calls $8
SB (VILLAIN): calls $7
BB: folds

*** FLOP *** [4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]

SB: bets $20
HERO: raises $40 to $60
UTG+1: folds
LP: folds
SB (VILLAIN): calls $40

*** TURN *** [4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]

SB (VILLAIN): checks
HERO : ??

I think my PF bet was a little small but being OOP didn't help me....

As for the Turn....This is a 100% push.....Correct ??

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a 100% push

[/ QUOTE ]

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a 100% push

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[Vavavoom]

Okay, standard hand...

I pushed...

He flipped A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ...and non-spade river gave me $320ish pot

[mythrilfox]

I don't raise the flop here... if you raised and he moved in you would have had to fold the best hand and if you somehow made an accurate call you still wouldn't be that far ahead.

[mythrilfox]

plus with 2 people still to act you'd rather they declare their hands before putting 60 into the pot. turn is a clear push since he probably just moves in with a set on the flop or c/r's to try and trap the rest of the field.

[mindflayer]

this is NOT 100% push on the turn.
is this the hand you put villian on?

lets assume thatvillian can only call the flop raise with the nut flush draw or a PP 33,44,.. up to QQ.
lest also assume that he would have folded 55,66,77,88,99 to your reraise. that leaves him with 33,44,tt,jj,qq.
so lets cancel the 33,44,tt with JJ and qq (and the small possibility he called with one of the other pairs)and isolate the AKs and AQs hands.

Turn the hands OPEN and do some calculations before you say its 100% push.
pot is 152, villian has 91.. you go all in
pot is now 243 and villian has 91. villian has 12 outs.

Villian must have a deeper stack for you to make it a wrong bet for him. give him $50 left instead and he MUST call.
give him 200 and now it is a mistake for him to call....
91 left you tell ME!

next time you guys say it is 100% push, tell me WHY you think it is. untill someone posts some logic for pushing .. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]-1 for all you who said 100% push.

[Leptyne]

The purpose of pushing the turn v. a flush draw is to eliminate implied odds and make the pot odds incorrect. If Villain had only 9 outs he would be more than a 4-1 dog and clearly a push would be correct. If an A will beat you then he has 3 additional outs for a total of 12. Multiply 12 X 2 = 24 and I call this approx. 3-1. If you've got enough stack left so that the pot size after your push will give him less than 3-1 on his call then clearly a push is correct.

This also works in reverse. By that I mean if is correct for Villain to call then it can't be correct for you to push. And if you can't push then you check behind. If you had been kind enough to put pot sizes on flop and turn this would be an easy calc. As it is it's too much trouble. You'll have to do it yourself.

I think it'll be close, therefore not a 100% push. If so, check behind and push the river on a blank.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]

I think it'll be close, therefore not a 100% push. If so, check behind and push the river on a blank.

[/ QUOTE ]

id rather give 3-1 odds than infinite:0 odds

also, waiting for a safe card is for the turn, not the river. theres no more cards to come after the river, man.

[swarm]

[ QUOTE ]
The purpose of pushing the turn v. a flush draw is to eliminate implied odds and make the pot odds incorrect. If Villain had only 9 outs he would be more than a 4-1 dog and clearly a push would be correct. If an A will beat you then he has 3 additional outs for a total of 12. Multiply 12 X 2 = 24 and I call this approx. 3-1. If you've got enough stack left so that the pot size after your push will give him less than 3-1 on his call then clearly a push is correct.

This also works in reverse. By that I mean if is correct for Villain to call then it can't be correct for you to push. And if you can't push then you check behind. If you had been kind enough to put pot sizes on flop and turn this would be an easy calc. As it is it's too much trouble. You'll have to do it yourself.

I think it'll be close, therefore not a 100% push. If so, check behind and push the river on a blank.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serioulsy suggesting that we give the flush draw a free look at the river? seriously?

The money in the pot is already in play so whether we give him a free look or not it does not go into our calculation on whether to bet or not.

We have x left, we are betting x that villan doesn't hit his 1/3 chance. We are a 3-1 favorite to double up what we have left in our stack if villan calls with his 12 outs.

Winning the money already in the pot has no correlation to our bet on the turn. The bet on the turn is gambeling what is left in our stacks. I will take that gamble everytime.

You guys do know there are situations where a betting by hero and calling by villan is +EV for both players?