Preflop with 88

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,
The pot size is basically going to be the average pot size when a big field is 3-bet. I'd ballpark maybe 10-11BB, but probably not 13-14. If we also account for the 25% of the time that your set is cracked, we'd need an even bigger average pot, ne c'est pas?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that 25% is waaaaaaay over the top. When you flop a set, I would think you get cracked closer to 10-15% of the time (about half of your estimate). Obviously, this number shifts with the number of villains in the pot, but I don't think losing 25% with your sets is very reasonable. (Note: A set is not the same as trips.)

If someone with some substantial PT stats could write a script to isolate sets, I would be interested in seeing some numerical data...

[Jake (The Snake)]

Hey Aaron,

Firstly, I think that if you fool around PokerStove some, you will see that the 25% estimate is not far off. Obviously PS isn't perfect for that kind of calculation, but it will get you in the ballpark if you try a bunch of different flops against 5 others. I'd like to know the PokerTracker % as well, but I also recall the 25% number being used quite often on the forums.

In any case, let's use an estimate that says 10/11 times your set holds up, no chance it gets reraised behind you, and 5 opponents. Obviously a favorable situation.

We'll say 89% of the time we lose 3 small bets, so 89 times we lose 3 = (267 SB).

1% of the time we lose 2 SB plus probably 8SB postflop so 1 time we lose 10 = (10 SB).

10% of the time we need to make up 277 SB. That is 27.7 SB per time we hit our set and it holds up. With 5 opponents putting in 3 SB in preflop, that means we need to make up 12.7SB on average postflop.

That's going to be really tough to do on its own. Now when you factor in the possibility that less people call preflop, that it is capped preflop, or most important, that your set hold up less often than 10 out of 11 (which is absolutely the case) then it becomes an easy fold if we are doing this on set value alone.

[Shillx]

Call. Call with hands like 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as well. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]