Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals

[samjjones]

Sabermetrics are not the be-all/end-all of player evaluation. Soriano is valuable for the offense he provides at a non-offensive position (2B). He is by all accounts (sabermetrically and traditional scouting) a horrible fielder. So moving him to LF diminishes his value. Speed diminishes with age as well. If I had to make a prediction, I'd say that Soriano will be lucky to hit 20 homers this year, and doesn't break a .750 OPS.

[danvh]

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I think the point made earlier in the thread makes the most sense. This move is telling Nats fans "Hey look, we have somebody you've heard of. Come watch him play." This isn't going to make them any more competitive in the NL East but at least they have a player to market the team around, even if it is only for this year. However I don't know why the Rangers traded him for more hitters when they need pitching.

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Exactly. We traded one guy with decent power that strikes out allot and shouldnt lead off for another guy with decent power that strikes out allot and shouldnt lead off but happened to be on the Yankees.

This move had more to do with Bowdens resume more then the Nats roster I feel.

But whatever, if its gets people excited about the team and stops the stadium/ownership arguements for a couple days, fine.

[rwperu34]

Soriano will not change from second base.

[sublime]

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This is the problem I have with Sabermetrics. As a general tool, it is very good at evaluating performance. In fact, from reading some of the explanations at BP, I believe that their theories are for the most part misinterpreted. But sometimes things get a little skewed. You can't honestly think that Wilkerson's performance over the last three years has been within 6 of Soriano? Also, it's nice how your little stats disregard 2002, which was Soriano's best year. It's likely that the stats don't give enough credit for Soriano's base stealing prowess. It's also very unlikely that they give Soriano any credit for his baserunning speed. 25 points in average and 25 K/162 for guys with the exact same OPS+ is going to make a big difference as well. To have Soriano and Wilkerson that close, the stats are lending too much value to the walk.

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when i do evaluations like that, i only go back 3 years as a norm. should i go back 4 and count 4 seasons ago as 1/2 weight? at best its going to mean they are worth the same equally (offense) going forward.

You can't honestly think that Wilkerson's performance over the last three years has been within 6 of Soriano?

no, i honestly think that wilkerson has been BETTER! funny thing is, i have provided stats to prove it.

It's likely that the stats don't give enough credit for Soriano's base stealing prowess.

soriano has stolen bases at a 80% clip throughout his career. the break even point is 78% i think. so yeah, it adds some value.

25 points in average and 25 K/162 for guys with the exact same OPS+ is going to make a big difference as well. To have Soriano and Wilkerson that close, the stats are lending too much value to the walk.

the walk will never get enough credit. NEVER.

i will give you the benefit of the doubt and say that soriano mayb be better than wilkerson by maybe 3 runs a season, just so you wont keep harping on the soriano > wilkerson angle.

ok, so wilkerson makes half of what soriano makes AND they threw in a 4th outfielder AND a low level prosepect

i mean really, you rhink this was a steal for the NATS? i mean WOW!

[rwperu34]

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mean really, you rhink this was a steal for the NATS? i mean WOW!

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I think this is a bad deal for both teams. The Rangers lose more.

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soriano has stolen bases at a 80% clip throughout his career. the break even point is 78% i think. so yeah, it adds some value.


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BP quotes 75%, but then when I do the math for run EV, it turns out to be closer to 70%, maybe even less. Steals are all about situations though, and I don't want to go into that. Suffice it to say, that statheads don't give enough credit to the stolen base.


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funny thing is, i have provided stats to prove it.


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Vince Lombardi said something about stats. I know he's an oldtimer, but he was goot.

You have provided stats to prove they are about equal, with Soriano having a slight edge. But those stats have undervalued Soriano's basestealing speed, given him no credit at all for his baserunning speed, and hardly accounted for K's and batting average. Those are all areas where Soriano has a big advantage.

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when i do evaluations like that, i only go back 3 years as a norm. should i go back 4 and count 4 seasons ago as 1/2 weight? at best its going to mean they are worth the same equally (offense) going forward.


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The problem here is sample size. Even over the course of a career, there will be significant statistical variance. What I would do is figure out what player they are, and when they became that player. Soriano is clearly no worse now than he was in 2002. We are just dealing with statistical variance.

Going forward, niether player should get much better or much worse. They are both in the peak of thier career, and will be for at least two more years.

[sublime]

I think this is a bad deal for both teams. The Rangers lose more.

i think its such a clear win for the rangers that its not even worth debate.




Going forward, niether player should get much better or much worse. They are both in the peak of thier career, and will be for at least two more years.

fine, whatever. i even conceded that soriano is worth more (slightly) yet you fail to recognize that he is paid twice as much AND the rangers got anotehr ML player who is young an cheap.

BP quotes 75%, but then when I do the math for run EV, it turns out to be closer to 70%, maybe even less. Steals are all about situations though, and I don't want to go into that. Suffice it to say, that statheads don't give enough credit to the stolen base.

and your evidence that the steal is worht more than 75% is where? is that 5% edge on 30 something occasions worth 3million? lol, no.

as for all this K nonsense, i can and will say that players who draw most of their OBP from walks tend to have longer and better careers, with less variance.


The problem here is sample size. Even over the course of a career, there will be significant statistical variance. What I would do is figure out what player they are, and when they became that player. Soriano is clearly no worse now than he was in 2002. We are just dealing with statistical variance.

3 seasons of weighted data isnt enough? 1500 at bats? including a season from 4 years ago when projecting a players performance is retarded.

i am done with this debate. we are not even in the same playing field when it comes to this stuff.

[rwperu34]

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we are not even in the same playing field when it comes to this stuff

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If you think 1500 AB's is going to give us EXACT information and eliminate significant statistical variance, then I agree.

[sublime]

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we are not even in the same playing field when it comes to this stuff

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If you think 1500 AB's is going to give us EXACT information and eliminate significant statistical variance, then I agree.

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nothing is perfect of course, but usuing 3 seasons worth of data and weighting it in a 3/2/1 fashion is sufficient IMO.

[danvh]

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SORIANO IS TWICE THE PLAYER of WILKERSON!!!!


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Screw who is the better player. Who is going to be doing all the crappy local tv ads for the Nats? Wilkerson was gold in those. Soriano better start doing some Eastern Motors commercials or something or Im going to be bitter...Sorry if this makes little sense to those outside DC area.

[DougOzzzz]

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It's likely that the stats don't give enough credit for Soriano's base stealing prowess. It's also very unlikely that they give Soriano any credit for his baserunning speed. 25 points in average and 25 K/162 for guys with the exact same OPS+ is going to make a big difference as well. To have Soriano and Wilkerson that close, the stats are lending too much value to the walk.

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Please, just shut up. You have no idea what you're talking about.

Batting average is meaningless. The reason? OPS takes into account batting average. BA is a large component of both OBP and SLG. If you weight it any more than that, you are giving it a larger weight than it deserves.

For instance, take two players:

One has a BA/OBP/SLG line of .330/.400/.500 - The other has a BA/OBP/SLG line of .260/.400/.500.

You would argue that the first guy is vastly superior. He's not. And going forward, the second guy is a much better pick. Not only does he get more walks, but he also hits for a whole lot more power. That makes up for the batting average difference. People sometimes confuse SLG for "power." But SLG is really BA + power. Power is SLG-BA or ISO.

So, the real numbers for these guys are:
BA/IsoD/IsoP
.330/.070/.170
.260/.140/.240

That's batting average, Isolated Discipline (OBP-BA), and Isolated Power(SLG-BA). As you can see, BA is already given a pretty hefty weight. It's valued as twice as important as either walk rate or power rate.

Second, you just sound stupid when you say stuff like "the stats lend too much value to this, too little value to that." Do you have any idea how much smarter the people who came up with these stats are than you? Or me? Do you know how much analysis has gone into determining the value of the SB? The value of baserunning? The value of the strikeout (which by the way, is basically just another out because it rules out the DP)?

They've done all this. They've come up with a number to show how good these players are - and Soriano is just not that much better. The numbers don't describe what type of player each is. They are not perfect. But to suggest something like "this guy is twice as good as that guy" when the numbers are nearly identical, is just dumb.