Missed Value Bet?

gaming_mouse · #1 12-04-2005, 03:22 AM

Villain 28/16/3.5.

I thought that with his AF I could not safely fold to a raise on the river, therefore i shouldnt bet. am i wrong? is it even close?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

Spicymoose · #2 12-04-2005, 03:23 AM

Yeah. Bet the river. Plenty of value.

Lmn55d · #3 12-04-2005, 03:34 AM

bet/call and bet/fold both have higher EVs than checking. KQ is the only hand that he could have which improved on the river.

EDIT: eh I guess k7 but this often fold turn, doesn't raise preflop, or bets river so he doesn't have to put in 3 bets

#4 12-04-2005, 03:34 AM

i think you can safely bet/fold here.
if not, bet/call still has plenty of value.

gaming_mouse · #5 12-04-2005, 03:39 AM

Thanks for the checkup. I'm getting killed so sorry if that was standard.

jba · #6 12-04-2005, 03:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
bet/call and bet/fold both have higher EVs than checking.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this

[ QUOTE ]

KQ is the only hand that he could have which improved on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

just the fact that he called the turn "improved" his hand in that his range is tighter and stronger than it was when we decided to bet the turn, so in a lot of circumstances it is good to bet turn, not so good to bet river, even if there's no way the river card helped him.

hopefully that makes sense

anyways I agree bet the river and maybe i'm just nitpicking

Lmn55d · #7 12-04-2005, 03:48 AM

yea in this hand his range is still pretty wide when he calls the turn and the K doesn't change the fact that you will be ahead when he calls greater than 50% of the time (assuming you fold to a raise)

bakku · #8 12-04-2005, 04:22 AM

dont forget to shout out AIYA!! as you bet