A Pure Math Situation

[sk_man]

My numbers came out a little diffent than yours. I tried it both with and without TT, because I'm not sure if I would eliminate them.

AK - 9
AA - 3
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 3
TT - 6

Drawing Dead: JJ and AA, 6 combos, EV -2
6 outs: TT and QQ, 12 combos, EV -.2681
6 outs (without TT): QQ, 6 combos, EV -.2681
3 outs: KK, 3 combos, EV -1.1341
Tied: AK, 9 combos, EV 4.35

Then we just average each situation weighted by the number of combos, and that should give us our EV for the hand.

Including the TTs, I came out with .6843, and without them, it was .92245. Still a call down, but if we start to discount AK, then it becomes very close.

To get the EV, I was taking the odds that the hero will win the hand, multiplying it by the size of the pot (at the end of the hand) and subtracting the amount we have to call to see the showdown.

EV = O*(P + 4) - 2

This might be a little off, because there's a good chance villian would check through TT and maybe QQ on the river. So, in that case the EV would be:

EV = O*(P + 2) - 1

I don't really care about the exact numbers. I just want to know, if I'm doing this right.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]


EV = O*(P + 4) - 2

This might be a little off, because there's a good chance villian would check through TT and maybe QQ on the river. So, in that case the EV would be:

EV = O*(P + 2) - 1

I don't really care about the exact numbers. I just want to know, if I'm doing this right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to think about what you did, cause it seems confusing. But I dont think I made a mistake. Much easier way to conceptualize EV:

EV = (chance you win)*(amount you profit) + (chance you lose)*(amount you lose)

[ QUOTE ]
Where is the option for peel the turn and fold the river UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where is the option for peel the turn and fold the river UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the post I made 3 above yours. I think this line is clearly wrong.

[sk_man]

If you mean what I think you mean by "amount you profit" and "amount you lose," then they're the same equatuon.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In your math, isn't it incorrect to include bets you put in on later streets? Calling down from the turn you against AK it is (9/24)*(4.3) since you are making the decision on the turn. Same with QQ, (6/24)((6/44*8.7)+(38/44*-2) and so on. It still is a calldown, but I'm getting about +0.82 in my calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you are doing. In my calculation, the 5.3 is half of what you will win if you call down and split the pot. It includes the two additional bets your opponent puts in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a moron, I misread and got that there was 7.7 in the pot pre-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

When we're locked into a split on the turn, our share of the pot is 4.35 BBs (minus rake). We have no share of any turn or river bets our opponent makes, but we have to match those bets to claim our half of the 8.7 BB pot that existed when the turn betting began.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was right and wrong. The calculation was slightly off for AK but mine was off for the rest. I shouldn't try to do the math problems at work [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Would this be a viable question following this discussion?

How many bets will you gain from this play?