No, I don't like money. (bluff w/air)

GoblinMason (Craig) · #1 11-25-2005, 06:11 AM

Opponent is 35/9/1.5 w/ a low WSD.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) converter

SB ($214.70)
Hero ($378)
UTG ($117)
MP ($809.60)
CO ($363.25)
Button ($578.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, CO calls $4, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($12) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $11.4, SB folds, Hero raises to $40...

edit: forgot to convert

AllIn3High · #2 11-25-2005, 06:18 AM

Looks like a good resteal opportunity. This is something I do far too rarely.

soah · #3 11-25-2005, 06:35 AM

You're risking $40 to win $23. You could have just bet $8 to win $12 and stolen the pot with almost the same frequency.

snowbank · #4 11-25-2005, 06:40 AM

I think this is a decent move, seeing as probably 80%+ players aren't going to bet out pot on a rainbow flop if he hit trips. They will probably attempt to trap. Do you think raising to $30 would accomplish the same thing?

GoblinMason (Craig) · #5 11-25-2005, 07:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a decent move, seeing as probably 80%+ players aren't going to bet out pot on a rainbow flop if he hit trips. They will probably attempt to trap. Do you think raising to $30 would accomplish the same thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah probably...I need to work on this.

GoblinMason (Craig) · #6 11-25-2005, 07:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're risking $40 to win $23. You could have just bet $8 to win $12 and stolen the pot with almost the same frequency.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're probably right...I was just thinking along the same lines snow was in that most players would trap w/trips and I don't think he can call or raise unless he has at least that whereas he could call a lot more when I bet out.

Malachii · #7 11-25-2005, 07:20 AM

I do this every now and then. Soah's post is a very good one though... it's not flashy, but why risk a lot to win a little when you can bet a little to win a little more?

snowbank · #8 11-25-2005, 07:31 AM

I do this every now and then. Soah's post is a very good one though... it's not flashy, but why risk a lot to win a little when you can bet a little to win a little more?

I agree, betting the flop and trying to pick up a small pot would be a good option. Based on the check and him coming out betting pot based on that flop though almost says, "hey, I'm trying to steal this pot." I think in most cases with a pot bet there he might as well be playing with his cards face up, because at LEAST 80% or more of players who did flop trips here are not coming out and betting pot. Him betting that MAKES me want to bluff at it. This is also a perfect time if you do bluff it to show your cards, and give off a wild imagine while you sit back and reap the rewards later on as people call and raise you with the nuts because of this "crazy play." Back to the large raise with nothing though. I would have raised to less than $40, and I would say that more than 80% of players wouldn't do that with trips here, but let's use those numbers. $40 to win $23.

80% of the time you win the pot right there.(+$23)
20% of the time you are raised and fold or are called and check fold the turn.(-$40)

80% times $23 = $18.4
20% times -$40= -$8

Based on this play we'll assume you are winning on average $10+.

soah · #9 11-25-2005, 05:42 PM

80% of the time +$12 = 9.6
20% of the time -$8 = -1.6

Net profit of betting $8 on the flop is $8. But when you lead at the flop you are just representing any trips, or any pair.... when you checkraise big, you're representing a very strong hand. You can bet at the flop much more often than you can checkraise it before people start to get suspicious. And in order for the checkraise to get respect, you need to play your legitimate hands the same way. So what happens when you have 82o and you checkraise the flop to $40 and get called? Checkraising risks a lot of money when you're bluffing and makes it hard to get paid off when you're not bluffing. And it inflates the pot size greatly when you're out of position.

And btw, you may think that the big pot bet on that flop looks like an obvious bluff, but the big checkraise looks equally suspicious. Very few players play open trips like that, mostly because the ones that do end up busting out and get replaced by people that don't. For examle, super-aggro overbetter openlimps on the button with J8o, SB folds, BB checks, flop JJ2, super-aggro donk gets all the money in against the ROCK in the BB who has J2s. He had splashed around for 15 minutes building up his manical image and then hit his "big hand" and went broke. Open trips really aren't that great. Am I straying off topic?