Dealing with a guy re-raising me light pre flop

scdavis0 · #1 11-22-2005, 03:58 PM

Villain was certainly a thinking LAG, but maybe a little too loose/fancy for his own good. Stats on him were 50/16 over 350 hands. He was constantly re-raising my opening raises (my stats are 29/18). Unless he was on a huge rush he was almost certainly re-raising me light. Although he did elect to show me KK once.

When I called the re-raise pre-flop I decided I was certainly playing it for more than set value. Please note that the flop raise is not much more than pot sized.

Who likes?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($156.60)
Hero ($456.22)
SB ($224.20)
BB ($184.15)
UTG ($451.35)
MP ($51.62)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Hero raises to $7, SB (poster) raises to $29, 1 fold, Hero calls $23.

Flop: ($62) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $45, Hero goes all-in $426.22

beavens · #2 11-22-2005, 03:59 PM

perhaps this isnt my style of play, and it IS very read dependent, but i can't think we're ahead here.

(i love how i am of ZERO help to this thread!!)

BobboFitos · #3 11-22-2005, 04:08 PM

ive done similar things. sometimes he folds, sometimes he calls. It depends how often he's reraising you light, as he wont laydown a better hand, obv, so you're moving in figuring to pick up ~80 when he has nothing, losing ~225 with 10% equity (or -200ish) meaning he needs to fold at a 20:8 clip to balance it out, or about 70% of the time. If he ever calls with a worst hand - like A4 - this play gains immense value (or takes a stand with improved AK, for example) which if you're like me, still only happens rarely. (when they REALLY get fed up) so thats a low %.

so what it comes down to is how often is he repoping 99+ vs everything else.

Most of the time this is OK, maybe pos EV, but involves alot of variance. I think I fold to the reraise as you're not given set odds, although calling and moving in on flops (like this) is the next best option.

scdavis0 · #4 11-22-2005, 04:12 PM

He seemed to be tilting a little bit, and one reason that I liked my play is that I did expect an occassional crazy call from an A4/AK type hand. He called a pot sized bet of mine on the river once with AJ on a Q679Q board after I had checked the turn behind (I had 8T -- flush card hit on turn).

Your analysis of 70%~ folding clip is well noted and a bit alarming. Also, I have to think he folds 66 and 77 almost 100%.

scdavis0 · #5 11-22-2005, 04:29 PM

Doing my own numbers isn't it more like I pick up $100 (the $100 in the pot) when he folds and lose 90% of the $150 that he has left (~$135) when he calls? Then he only has to fold like 58% of the time to make this profitable. And that's completely ignoring the few times I'll actually be ahead when he calls.

BobboFitos · #6 11-22-2005, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Doing my own numbers isn't it more like I pick up $100 (the $100 in the pot) when he folds and lose 90% of the $150 that he has left (~$135) when he calls? Then he only has to fold like 58% of the time to make this profitable. And that's completely ignoring the few times I'll actually be ahead when he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way I was thinking about it was net profit (your pf plan with calling the raise then attacking the pot, rather then assuming postflop on what to do; the differences in our numbers is I include the pf call of the reraise in one of the obstacles to overcome)

namely, you win the amount he expended pf + continuation bet when he doesn't call, (which was ~80) and lose your stack (or effective stack, which was ~225) with just ~2ish outs (so 10%, or about 20 equity, making net -200).

fathertime · #7 11-22-2005, 04:38 PM

You note that you are laggy/maniacal yourself. I often check call down maniacal lags. Once I beat them in a pot, they slow down if I call their flop bets and they are on air, which allows me to steal or value bet the river.

Whenever I try to play more aggressively against them, I seem to make the wrong move at the wrong time. Do you have any suggestions on how to counter a laggy/maniacal player, who plays well postflop?

scdavis0 · #8 11-22-2005, 04:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doing my own numbers isn't it more like I pick up $100 (the $100 in the pot) when he folds and lose 90% of the $150 that he has left (~$135) when he calls? Then he only has to fold like 58% of the time to make this profitable. And that's completely ignoring the few times I'll actually be ahead when he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way I was thinking about it was net profit (your pf plan with calling the raise then attacking the pot, rather then assuming postflop on what to do; the differences in our numbers is I include the pf call of the reraise in one of the obstacles to overcome)

namely, you win the amount he expended pf + continuation bet when he doesn't call, (which was ~80) and lose your stack (or effective stack, which was ~225) with just ~2ish outs (so 10%, or about 20 equity, making net -200).

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your analysis, but it ignores my backup plan of occassionally flopping a set and winning a huge pot.

The true flop fold percent figure for profitability is probably somewhere in between my 58% and your 70% number when you factor this in.

BobboFitos · #9 11-22-2005, 04:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I understand your analysis, but it ignores my backup plan of occassionally flopping a set and winning a huge pot.

The true flop fold percent figure for profitability is probably somewhere in between my 58% and your 70% number when you factor this in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thats why I say it's probably slight pos EV, and I may play the same. But... as said... ( [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) huge variance.

scdavis0 · #10 11-22-2005, 04:53 PM

Well since this hand was analyzed to my satisfaction I'll go ahead and post results. This may be the first time I've ever done that. I told the virtual dealer to "keep 'em low".

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($156.60)
Hero ($456.22)
SB ($224.20)
BB ($184.15)
UTG ($451.35)
MP ($51.62)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Hero raises to $7, SB (poster) raises to $29, 1 fold, Hero calls $23.

Flop: ($62) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $45, Hero calls $426.22 (All-In), SB calls $149.20 (All-In).

Turn: ($682.42) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($682.42) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $682.42

Results in white below: 
SB has Kc Kh (two pair, kings and fours).
Hero has 5c 5s (full house, fives full of fours).
Outcome: Hero wins $682.42. 

Villain went on a total rampage for about 5 minutes and then bounced.