Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm

[ajizzle]

I don't like the re-raise one bit. Presumably, you re-raised to 1600 to take the pot from him right there, as there is really no value in putting in the raise. But if you think you can take the pot from him on the flop, why not just call his raise to 450, see a turn, and if you miss, try to check raise him there. You are leaving yourself with tough decisions by re-raising on the flop. If he folds, then great. But he could re-raise, which puts you in a very uncomfortable spot. But even worse, IMO, is if he just calls. Then the turn play becomes troublesome when you miss. I believe you have to fold for all his chips here though. Sure, you have 6 overcards, but they might not be good. I would consider them as 3 outs, plus all the flush cards, so not getting the odds to call.

I believe Hero reraised here willing to call a subsequent all in.

Calling the initial reraise leads to difficult decisions on the next street, should Hero not hit a card on the turn.

[ajizzle]

I have read a few posts totally discounting the possibility that villian has a set. That seems ridiculous to me. With the flush draw out there, betting upfront with a set is pretty standard. Nothing wrong with 3x raise on flop, and then once you re-raise, he gets the impression that you want to roll 'em, so pushes all-in.

Also, the fact that his comments to Exit say crankyman [observer] should indicate that he busted on the hand. So don't know why people assumed Exit folded.

[ajizzle]

I disagree. I think the turn play is easier with the pot fairly small and stacks pretty deep. I think Hero got lucky here that the villain was drawing really thin. But throw in one or two hands where villain makes this play with air, and i don't think he's getting the right odds against the range.

However, since this is probably a rebuy tourney, it may change the play a little, as losing this hand doesnt cripple you for the rest of the tourney and the villain may make this play with air with more than 2 hands.

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And i bet out, so that i could 3 bet if he raised me, but maybe that wasnt the best.

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I think that's fine in general, but you should set up your bets such that you're the one pushing (and thus can fold out hands that are ahead or 50/50 against you). Since it's pretty much impossible to do that with these stacks, I think there are better lines.

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I disagree. I think the turn play is easier with the pot fairly small and stacks pretty deep. I think Hero got lucky here that the villain was drawing really thin. But throw in one or two hands where villain makes this play with air, and i don't think he's getting the right odds against the range.

However, since this is probably a rebuy tourney, it may change the play a little, as losing this hand doesnt cripple you for the rest of the tourney and the villain may make this play with air with more than 2 hands.

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I figured it for a deep stack tourney with everyones stack being above 5K...

[aaronbeen]

I'm glad 3498573475 people agreed with my simple calculations to call the shove. I don't think this tells us how to play the hand optimally. After all hero could have 32o and 5k chips, hero bets 4999 chips, should hero call a shove? Your answer doesn't tell us much about whether hero should have bet!

[note: I am ignoring the results here, I still think my original ranges are fine once the action progresses as it did and my range for when the flop hits is certain to not include q10]

You are putting money in as a dog to villain's range and with no fold equity. This may be unavoidable and acceptable to due odds but let's look at the entire line. I suspect it will come down to the 3-bet.

Betting the flop seems right. Villain is likely to fold aq and ak right there. We may get a free turn card. We may get money in the pot while we have an equity edge.

Once villain raises though I'm not sure I like 3-betting. What are you going to do if the villain cold calls and the turn blanks? If he's smart and you check the turn he will pot it. What if an ace or jack comes? You are deep and your pot equity is not overwhelming. Neither is your folding equity once you get raised.

I think the key here is that if you just call you have a lot of implied odds. The pot is small relative to your stacks and the villain has a hand he can't get away from easily. He will probably be forced to call block-ish bets if you pair (or raise them, allowing you to fold vs a set or a7 that became aces up). If you make a flush at some point he is going to be forced to pay off at least one value bet.

So anyway I bet/call the flop reluctantly. I am not at all sure about this and hopefully a really great player can post a detailed response because I've been mishandling big draws with deep stacks recently. (See my post the other day where I made a questionable turn semibluff.)

[ajizzle]

I realized this after I posted.

If it's a deep stack, then i think you lean even more towards folding, as you don't need to be making these types of plays in marginal spots. Especially not with 15/30 blinds.

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If it's a deep stack, then i think you lean even more towards folding, as you don't need to be making these types of plays in marginal spots. Especially not with 15/30 blinds.

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People need to stop making this argument. We play each hand to squeeze EV out of it. We don't play each hand waiting for the best +EV situation possible.

[ajizzle]

So if you were given the option to put all of your chips in the pot as a 51% favorite on every hand of the tournament, you would do so?

Even if calling here is +EV, it is only by a slight margin, and given it's a deep stack tourney, your $EV may go down slightly, but your variance will go down so significantly that it is in your best interest to wait for a better spot.

That's assuming its +EV. I think its -EV to call.