Bubble hand with 10s on the button($55)

[HesseJam]

Yeah, yeah. Compared to PT or to HoH I+II it is pricey. But I well understand why it has to be a bit more (because it is not a mass product).

SNGPT isn't so helpful in this situation if you want to calculate the +$EV. You don't know how often the big stack will call if you push.

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SNGPT isn't so helpful in this situation if you want to calculate the +$EV. You don't know how often the big stack will call if you push.

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That's easy. Just work out the scenario for a variety of situations, varying the percentage of times that you are called and the quality of hands that you would be called with. I did this yesterday for someone asking me about pushing middle pairs in EP and I actually ended up working numbers for a variety of paired holdings at the same time. There's a point where the play will become -EV based on a calling frequency and the hands you would expect villain to call with. That's when your ability to read players comes into play and knowing what that player would open raise with as well as whether or not you think his range fits into one of the +EV models.

But you're right, PokerStove is better suited for this type of analysis.

I took the liberty of running some analyses based on villain calling with the top 10% of hands. From there you can vary villains range and use similar calcs making sure to account for the different equity values against a different calling range.

Versus the top 10% of hands (88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo)TT is a favorite 52:48.

There is 900 in the pot and hero has 1170 behind. When villain folds, hero wins 900. When villain calls, hero stands to win 2070 or lose 1170.

80:20 fold/call

Villain folds you win .80*900=720
Villain calls and you win .104*2070=215.28
Villain calls and you lose .096*1170=112.32

Total EV of +822.96

50:50 fold/call

Villain folds you win .50*900=450
Villain calls and you win .26*2070=538.20
Villain calls and you lose .24*1170=280.8

Total EV of +707.40

20:80 fold/call

.20*900=180
.416*2070=861.12
.384*1170=449.28

Total EV of +591.84

This basically tells me that if you think villain will call with the top 10% of hands that a push is absolutely correct here and expects to be a winner on average. If you tighten up villains calling range the caclulations change slightly against TT however the EV calculations still make this a clear push due to the fact that it becomes less likely for villain to be holding one of those premium hands and thus you should probably weigh a fold higher than a call in that case.

If there's anything here that I'm missing or failing to consider please point it out as these types of calculations are still fairly new to me. Scary thought - I enjoy doing this for my own benefit as much as everyone elses.

More than anything I make this move because a win here is almost sure to get me deeper into the final 3 and I'm already the short stack at the table. I need chips and TT is a strong hand to push all in and hope to take down the pot. I want first here. If I lose there's another STT starting up any second.

Nice post.

I'm much too lazy to go over your calculations but you came up with the result that pushing is +EV so my guess is that they're good. Also if you put this much effort into understanding these types of situations it is for sure +EV for you game overall.

To the OP - without a read telling me otherwise I push without seriously even considering any other options. I put the raiser on a wide range and expect him to fold and if he calls I'm not ashamed of my TT.

[tigerite]

There is one problem, his calculations seem to use chipEV.

[Hornacek]

Um... this is a borderline push or fold. It totally depends on the quality of play from your opponents. If they're rocks, you're going to have to win a coinflip sooner or later, so shove this junk in.

Otherwise, if you think you can get a more dominant position within an orbit, fold, and get ready to play super aggro.

[tigerite]

It certainly is borderline. I'd need a read to push.

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There is one problem, his calculations seem to use chipEV.

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Yep, just noticed I replied to someone referring specifically to $EV and not cEV. I just saw the reference to not using SNGPT and ran with it.

[tigerite]

cEV is very far from optimal on the bubble though. I can do the ranges for $EV, but not here. Will have to wait til I get home from work.

[bigt439]

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I'm not much of an ICM guy ... AND I've really been struggling with my bubble play recently

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These are directly related.

I push here all day. I think this guy folds ALOT. You have a lot of chips, he's not going to have a wild calling range and I think he makes this open with a lot of hands. TT isn't completely terrible against his calling range either because he has AK almost as much as an overpair, maybe AQ in there if he sucks.

Pushing > Folding > Calling IMO