PLO8 Final Table AAJ3 hand vs big stack bully - crosspost from MTT

[LearnedfromTV]

Not NLHE but humor me. Omaha tourneys are tourneys too.

Don't have the history so I'll summarize.

5 handed. 30+3 PLO8 tourney.

Stacks may be a bit off but the point is I'm solidly second. Big stack is a good player who is playing overaggressive on the flop, often after potbuilding raises. He's seeing a lot of flops. He's definitely stealing some on the flop but he's shown down the goods too. He's willing to gamble but with no draws on the flop below that isn't really relevant other than to paint a picture.

SB Hero 22000 [A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
BB 8000
UTG Villain (~ a shitload - lets say 55000)
CO 12000
Button 7000

Blinds 400/800.

Villain limps. Fold. Fold.

Hero pots it to T3200 total. BB folds. Villain calls

Flop (T7200) is Q 5 5 rainbow, one club.

Hero bets 5000. Villain raises to 10000.

Hero isn't good enough to figure out if he has a 5 or is FOS, yells at computer and... ?

[Percussion]

your getting great odds here, I would have to say call and try to see what develops on the turn (I know backdoor low, and flush draw is unlikely) but calling with what, 4.5/1 odds against an aggressive player with possibly the best hand seems a little weak--keep in mind he has position, and that flop looks horrible. What if you had A23Kds?

Now by calling the turn you are telling villian you are pretty much pot committed, so he would probably stop bluffing (if he is of course) oh, and if he isnt, just make sure theres a couple of aces on the turn and river, and im sure you will end up ok!!

[xorbie]

My hold em background tells me this is a really, really horrible flop to bet at. Especially in this position against this villain.

[gergery]

This is a tough flop for you.

The problem is that there are very few draws and you are either way ahead or way behind. So if you bet, the vast majority of hands can’t call. But if a hand can call, then you are likely crushed. So I would normally bet 1/3 to 1/2 of the pot here if I was going to bet, no matter whether I had A223 or QQxx. I also think you take more chips by checking behind here and inducing a worse hand to bluff. Especially since there is little chance you connected with this flop and your opponent will know that.

In this case, there are two other factors: 1) given your stack size and the money in there, he has to expect someone with AAxx to call a good % of the time getting such good odds, so its less likely he is bluffing, but 2) given the fact that you can fold and still be 2nd in chips means you have a ton to lose, whereas if he gets stacked, he will be 2nd in chips by a long ways and not so far behind 1st in chips. This means that if he is a good tourney player and thinks you can lay this down, then he can make this bluff with a pretty wide range here. As a result, if he is mainly a ring game player, its fairly unlikely he is bluffing, but if he is a good tourney player, then the chance he’s bluffing is much much higher. FWIW, I would have either bet or check-raised you here with any hand I call preflop with if I think you can fold, knowing you can’t call me an overwhelming % of the time.

Net, the better your opponent, the more likely I would be to call here, but fold is probably better since most people in PLO8 tournaments are ring players not tourney experts, and you will still be in decent shape chip-wise after folding.

-greg