Bottom set on monotone flop, lay down or move in?

redrooski24 · #1 10-02-2005, 11:33 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

Hero (t1090)
CO (t955)
Button (t1045)
SB (t955)
BB (t1010)
UTG (t985)
UTG+1 (t2000)
UTG+2 (t985)
MP1 (t915)
MP2 (t1060)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t15, 3 folds, Hero calls t15, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t57.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets t45, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to t120, SB folds, BB pushes, Hero...

How sure do I need to be here that he's got a made flush for me to fold? This is a $33 on Party so I leaned towards a call but I'm not quite sure if I should be making these calls.

Also - why the hell can't I get the damn converter to work? I cut out the Texas part of NL Texas Hold Em but still no go.

ansky451 · #2 10-03-2005, 01:05 AM

Call, you will get shown down a monster draw quite a bit here IMO. Especially really early on, I want to gamble it up, so I definitely call here.

schwah · #3 10-03-2005, 01:14 AM

plenty of people do this with just A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

easy call

redrooski24 · #4 10-03-2005, 01:20 AM

Yea I called it, was just making sure. I haven't been able to play many tournys since school is back in full gear and I'm in a big slump at the moment, guess my damn results oriented thinking is seeping through my brain. On this hand I actually was shown a flush but sucked one out [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

#5 10-03-2005, 02:07 AM

You didn't really suck out that bad if you filled up. Many people don't realize the improvability of a set. You have 6 cards that pair the board on the turn to fill you up plus the 1 card that gives you quads. This gives you a 14% chance to fill up on the turn. Then on the turn there are 3 more cards to pair the board giving you ten outs to improve or roughly 20% to improve on the river. From your perspective, if he's got the flush then you're a good chance to improve. If he's got a flush draw, then if he misses the turn, then you have more outs than he does. Usually some of your outs that pair the board and such are cancelling out his flush draw outs. It's great when a person makes their flush on the river only to find out that it filled you up. You made a good call and tell him to "suck it" if he calls you a fish when you fill up.

#6 10-03-2005, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]

How sure do I need to be here that he's got a made flush for me to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there are three holdings you are likely up against here. First is a made flush protecting against a higher flush. Second, a flush draw like Ahx. Third, top pair like black A9, a lower pair, a pocket pair or a bluff.

If you are against a made flush, you still will improve to quads or a boat 34.4% of the time, making the EV of your call -288.84 chips. If you are against a flush draw like Ahx, you will win the hand 71.7% of the time, with an EV of 569.38 chips. If you are against a pair like A9, you are the overriding 94.3% favorite, making the EV of your call 1053.02 chips.

To figure out how often villain needs to have a made flush to make your call correct, we have to solve this equation:

(likelihood of a flush)(-288.84) * (likelihood of a flush draw)(569.38) * (likelihood of a pair or bluff)(1053.02) > 0

First, lets somewhat-arbitrarily assign the likelihood villian is on a pair or worse at 10%. This seems a little low here, but it's better to err on the side of a good opponent than a bad one.

This leaves us with two equations to solve (x = likelihood of made flush; y = likelihood of flush draw):

-298.84X + 569.38Y + 105.302 > 0

and

X + Y = .9

So, restated in terms of X:

-288.84X + 568.34 (.9-X) + 105.302 > 0

or

X > .7196

Therefore, you would have to put your opponent on a made flush given his push on the flop more than 71.96% of the time for your call to be wrong. There is no way he has that big a hand this much here, and your call was clearly right. NC. Nice suckout, too.