Chess Championship

[David Ottosen]

I might add I would never bet on "Victor" Kramnik. Whoever that is, I'm sure he's not as good as the current World Champion Vladimir Kramnik [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[David Ottosen]

I posted the same question on a couple of our chess newgroups. Other than one Russian player who felt Kramnik would blow him out of the water, most players agreed that there was value in betting Leko. The three respondents I put most stock into were two masters and an International master; one of the masters said he didn't know, and the other two both felt Leko would be at worst a tiny underdog, and possibly the favorite.

[TimM]

Hey, I recognize you from ICC or FICS (can't remember which).

[David Ottosen]

I played both occasionally, but really only played on FICS very much.

[bigpooch]

I don't think there would be much value on either one of
these bets. The rating difference between Kramnik and Leko
is quite small and Kramnik may not have much incentive to
win the match. On the other hand, Kramnik did have a nice
win against Leko in a Sicilian Sveshnikov in this year's
Linares tournament and he does have more match experience
than Leko.

I think you may have the best of it betting on Kramnik, but
you shouldn't expect much of an edge.

[Cyrus]

(A match is series of games.)

- I don't know if you are allowed to "past post" and how many moved deep into a Chess game. But know this: in Chess, Bayesian rules are to be used very, very cautiously as they apply to the opening. Say, Kramnik has the edge over Leko by 11-7 (Kramnik has won 11 games and lost 7, in their lifetime meetings, with draws not counting). Say, also, that Kramnik has a 100% record against Leko when playing White and the opening is Opening Variation A. They have played some 4 games with that and Kramnik won them all. If in the game you are betting on, you see Leko as Black going into Opening Variation A, then you are NOT to assume that Kramnik now has some huge advantage. What you should assume is that Kramnik will probably face difficulties in the early stage of the game, at least, because Leko has some "opening surprise" in store, i.e. he would not go into A unprepared!

-- Specific conditions of the games to be played are more important than people realize and particularly the rules on time. Players gain (or lose) on their strength according to the time limitations. Look for older people to be more comfortable with extended time and young people the opposite. (Remember to make an exception for "eternal youths" such as Karpov, Korchnoi, and others, here.)

-- ELO ratings are not to be taken lightly. They provide a solid rating of a Chess player's strength. ELO is also very good (it is actually designed for that) in indicating what is the likely result of a match or a game. Google for how ELO is computed and what are the ELOs of the two heroes.

That's it for now.

[Clarkmeister]

Thanks David.

[Clarkmeister]

Updated line for those who are interested. As Ottosen surmised, the money has come in on Leto:

101 Victor Kramnik -0.5 Game +103
102 Peter Leko +0.5 Game -113

[MMMMMM]

"14 games is very short for a World Championship match. Because the match is so short, I think Kramnik will play defensively. He'll play not to lose, especially with the black pieces. As a result, it's very unlikely Leko will win the match. He may not even win a single game. I'd say Leko has at best a 20% chance of winning the match."

Kramnik did a helluva job playing defensively against Kasparov; hard to imagine he'll have even that much trouble playing defensively against Leko. But hey, what do I know about Leko.

[MMMMMM]

Any line on Kramnik retaining his title?